Anthology of Statistics in Sports (ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability) (ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability)

This project, jointly produced by two academic associations, consists of reprints of previously-published articles in four statistics journals (Journal of the American Statistical Association, The American Statistician, Chance, and Proceedings of the Statistics in Sports Section of the American Statistical Association), organized into separate sections for four relatively well-studied sports (football, baseball, basketball, hockey, and a one for less-studies sports such as soccer, tennis, and track, among others). As such, it provides an opportunity to step back and see what has been accomplished in the statistical study of sports. To be sure, what is offered here provides only a sliver of statistical baseball research articles, ignoring all that has been performed in other academic fields (in particular physical education, psychology, sociology, and business administration) let alone outside of academia. Nonetheless, some of the chosen articles should be viewed as essential reading for any serious student of the topic, with the proviso that the statistical analyses can be very rough sledding. Baseball is the easiest of the "major" sports to submit to statistical analysis, and it receives the most varied attention here, with entries relevant to the statistical independence of half-innings from one another, the impact of a game event on the probability of a victory or defeat, how uninformative most "breakdown indices" such as performance with runners in scoring position are, and why we can't do much with batting performance over a small number of at bats, and comparisons of performance over decades of play, among others. Football is only represented by articles on prediction of game outcomes and field goal kicking; basketball by prediction of tournament outcomes and "the hot hand" (I found the three on the latter topic particularly interesting); hockey by team ratings, Stanley Cup playoff outcomes, and a very provocative piece comparing overtime with shootouts for deciding ties, and soccer by team ratings and the effect of player ejection on the odds of winning. 1.1 The ASA Section on Statistics in Sports (SIS) The 1992 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) saw the creation of a new section of the American Statistical Association (ASA). Joining the host of traditional areas of statistics such as Biometrics, Survey Research Methods, and Physical and Engineering Sciences was the Section on Statistics in Sports (SIS). As stated in its charter, the section is dedicated to promoting high professional standards in the application of statistics to sports and fostering statistical education in sports both within and outside the ASA. Statisticians worked on sports statistics long before the founding of SIS. Not surprisingly, some of the earliest sports statistics pieces in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA) were about baseball and appeared in the 1950s. One of the first papers was Frederick Mosteller's 1952 analysis of the World Series (JASA, 47 (1952), pp. 355-380). Through the years, Mosteller has continued his statistical research in baseball as well as other sports. Fittingly, his 1997 paper “Lessons from Sports Statistics” ( The American Statistician , 51-4 (1997), pp. 305-310) is included in this volume (Chapter 32) and provides a spirited example of the curiosity and imagination behind all of the works in this volume. Just as the nation's sporting interests broadened beyond baseball in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, so did the topics of research in sports statistics. Football, basketball, golf, tennis, ice hockey, and track and field were now being addressed (sometimes very passionately). Perhaps no question has been so fiercely debated as the existence of the “hot hand” in basketball. The basketball section (Part III) of this volume provides some examples of this debate, which remains entertainingly unresolved. Until the creation of SIS, research on sports statistics had to be presented and published in areas to which it was only tangentially related—one 1984 paper published in this volume (Chapter 12) was presented at the JSM under the auspices of the Social Statistics Section since it had no other home. The continued fervent interest in sports statistics finally led to the creation of SIS in the 1990s. Since its creation, the section has provided a forum for the presentation of research at the JSM. This in turn has created an explosion of sports statistics papers in ASA publications as well as an annual volume of proceedings from the JSM (published by the section). The September 1994 issue of JASA devoted a section exclusively to sports statistics. The American Statistician typically has a sports statistics paper in each issue. Chance often has more than one article plus the regular column “A Statistician Reads the Sports Pages.” What lies in the future? Research to date has been heavily weighted in the areas of competition (rating players/teams and evaluating strategies for victory). This differs greatly from the research being performed in other parts of the world. Papers in publications of the International Sports Statistics Committee of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) have emphasized analysis of participation and popularity of sports. This is certainly one frontier of sports statistics that North American statisticians should explore in future work. Given the ongoing debate about the social and economic values of professional sports franchises, research in this area may become more common as well The unlikely worlds of sports fans and statisticians collide in this interesting and accessible collection of previously published articles on the use of statistics to analyze sports, which the editors have thoughtfully culled from a variety of American Statistical Association (ASA) publications. Heavily weighted in the areas of competition (rating players and teams, evaluating strategies for victory), the articles vary in mathematical complexity, but most will be accessible to readers with a general knowledge of statistics. Newly written material from the editors and other notable contributors introduces each section of the book, and a chapter with suggestions on using the articles in the classroom is included. Organized by sport to make it easy for readers to find the papers in their particular areas of interest, Anthology of Statistics in Sports contains separate sections devoted to the major North American team sports of baseball, football, basketball, and ice hockey. Two additional sections cover miscellaneous sports and more general issues related to sports and statistics. This book grew from the efforts of members of the ASA Section on Statistics in Sports, which is dedicated to promoting high professional standards in the application of statistics to sports and fostering statistical education in sports. This book will appeal to statisticians with an interest in sports who could use the chapters as engaging classroom examples. Sports fans with some understanding of statistics also will find the book of interest, especially the chapters written at a modest mathematical level.

The worlds of sports fans and statisticians collide in this interesting and accessible collection of previously published articles on the use of statistics to analyze sports, that the editors have thoughtfully culled from a variety of American Statistical Association (ASA) publications. Heavily weighted in the areas of competition (rating players and teams, evaluating strategies for victory), the articles vary in mathematical complexity, but most will be accessible to readers with a general knowledge of statistics. Newly written material from the editors and other notable contributors introduces each section of the book, and a chapter with suggestions on using the articles in the classroom is included. This book will appeal to statisticians with an interest in sports who could use the chapters as engaging classroom examples. Sports fans with some understanding of statistics also will find the book of interest, especially the chapters written at a modest mathematical level.