Annual Report on China’s Economic Growth: Macroeconomic Trends and Outlook (Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path)

"This book probes into China's economic growth in 2013 and predicts China's development prospects. China's GDP growth in 2014 continues to slow down, and is expected to be 7.6%, with the CPI stable at a level of 2.5%. With the pressures of structural slowdown, 2014 will be a year of adjustment, and there will be a slowdown in new initiatives to minimize risk. Against a background of policies to stabilize growth, change structures and promote reforms, and in order to assess the sustainability of development and transformation and upgrade of China's provincial regions, this book proposes a system for evaluating the country's development prospects and expounds economic growth at the provincial level."--Back cover Series Preface 6 Contents 8 Part I: General Report 9 Chapter 1: From High-Speed Growth to High-Efficiency Growth: Economic Transformation and Reform of Supply Mechanism 10 Economic Situations in 2013, Forecast for 2014 and Future Economic Prospects 10 1.1 The Economic Situation in 2013 and the Forecast for 2014 12 1.1.1 The Economic Situation in 2013 12 1.1.2 Expectation and Forecast for 2014 17 1.2 Potential Growth Rate and Analysis of the Economic Prospect for 2013–2018 18 1.2.1 Decomposition of the GDP Growth Based on Labor Productivity and Demographic Structural Change 19 1.2.2 Structural Factors Decomposition of the Labor Productivity Change Rate: Industrial Distribution Effect 21 1.2.3 Estimation of the Potential Growth Rate Based on C-D Production Functions and the Dynamics of Nonlinear Variables 21 1.2.4 Interval Estimation of China’s Economic Growth (2013–2018): 6.4–7.9 % 24 1.3 China’s Economic Prospect by Regions 26 1.4 Policy Suggestions for Supply-Side Macroeconomic Management 29 1.4.1 Improvement in the Competitive Market 30 1.4.2 Improvement in the Relative Price System 31 1.4.3 Transformation of the Mobilized Economy 31 1.4.4 Improvement in Structural Transformation Efficiency 31 1.4.5 Reduction in the Input Costs of the Supply Elements 32 1.4.6 Establishment of a Social Security System Suitable for China’s National Conditions 33 Appendix 1.1: Formulas for the Decomposition of the Social Labor Productivity Growth Rate 34 Part II: Report of Regional Economic Development Prospects 35 Chapter 2: An Assessment of the Development Prospects for China’s Provinces, Regions and Municipalities in 1990–2013 36 2.1 Introduction 37 2.2 Outcome of the Development Prospect Review of China’s Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 38 2.2.1 Development Prospect Indicator and Ranking of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 38 2.2.2 Primary Indicators and Rankings of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 46 2.3 Grading of the Development Prospects of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 47 2.3.1 Grading of the Development Prospects of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 47 2.3.2 Grading of the Economic Growth of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 58 2.3.3 Grading of Growth Sustainability in the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 67 2.3.4 Grading of Government Operational Efficiency in the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 77 2.3.5 Grading of People’s Livelihood in the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 87 2.4 Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Development Prospects of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 98 2.4.1 Primary Indicators 98 2.4.2 Secondary Indicators 107 2.4.3 Detailed Indicators 107 2.5 Conclusion 115 Appendices 117 Appendix 2.1: Figures and Tables Concerning the Outcome of the Review 117 Appendix 2.2: Overview, Indicator Design and Data Processing 183 Overview 183 Evaluation Indicator Design of the Development Prospect 185 Data Source and Processing 188 Data Source 188 Indicator Processing 192 Some Clarifications About the Indicators 195 The Evaluation Process of the Development Prospect of the Different Provinces, Autonomous Regions and Municipalities 196 References 201 Front Matter....Pages i-vii Front Matter....Pages 1-1 From High-Speed Growth to High-Efficiency Growth: Economic Transformation and Reform of Supply Mechanism....Pages 3-27 Front Matter....Pages 29-29 An Assessment of the Development Prospects for China’s Provinces, Regions and Municipalities in 1990–2013....Pages 31-195 Back Matter....Pages 197-198