Analysis of Catastrophes and Their Public Health Consequences. Ricci, Predictions, and Aggregation of Expert Judgment Supporting Science Policy : Descriptions, Predictions, and Aggregation of Expert Judgment Supporting Science Policy

Public health policy prospectively and retrospectively addresses the consequences of events ranging from the commonplace to the catastrophic. Informing policymakers and stakeholders by enhancing their understanding of complex causation to justify remedial or precautionary actions is a critical science-policy task. In this book, the key aspects of catastrophes (regardless of their nature) and routine events are identified through a common framework for their analyses, and the analyses of the consequences associated with the potential occurrence of these events also are discussed. The book is not about disaster planning; instead, it is focused on analysis and causation in the context of informing – rather than formulating – public health policy. The author aggregates and fuses scientific information and knowledge in public health policy-science using alternative but complementary methods. The book first focuses on the analysis of catastrophes and commonplace events; the focus then shifts to causal models of multifactorial diseases, particularly at low doses or dose-rates, associated with these events. Topics explored among the chapters include: * Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices * Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment * Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects * Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-making The aim of the book is to show that the analyses of events are fundamentally similar, regardless of whether the concern is a global catastrophe or commonplace. __Analysis of Catastrophes and Their Public Health Consequences__ is a text that should engage students, instructors, and researchers in public health, science policy, and preparedness research, as well as serve as a useful resource for policy analysts, practitioners, and risk managers. Preface 6 Acknowledgments 11 Contents 12 About the Author 15 List of Symbols 16 Chapter 1: Black Swans, Dragon-Kings, and Other Catastrophes: Caught Between Infinitesimals and Googols 18 1.1 Introduction 18 1.1.1 Discussion 25 1.1.1.1 Accident Analysis: Simple Illustrative Calculations 28 1.2 Uncertainty and Variability 29 1.3 Probability Distributions Represent Uncertainty 33 1.3.1 Comment 35 1.3.2 A Procedural View 38 1.4 Conclusion 40 References 40 Chapter 2: Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices 42 2.1 Introduction 42 2.2 Legally Binding Precautionary Principles 45 2.2.1 Probabilistic Uncertainty Affects Precautionary Decisions 48 2.3 Legal Aspects of Precaution: EU and US 49 2.3.1 Case Law, EU 49 2.3.2 Case Law, US 52 2.4 Precaution and Attitudes Toward Risks 58 2.5 Precautionary Choices: A Frame of Reference 60 2.5.1 Discussion 61 2.6 Conclusion 63 References 64 Chapter 3: Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment 66 3.1 Introduction 66 3.2 Cause and Effect 69 3.2.1 Definitions of Disasters, Catastrophes, and Catastrophic Incidents 71 3.3 Hazard, Risk, Likelihood, and Other Concepts 73 3.4 Conclusion 80 References 81 Chapter 4: Catastrophic Incidents: Critical Information and Knowledge 83 4.1 Introduction 83 4.2 Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Catastrophic Incidents 87 4.2.1 Magnitude, Location and Time 89 4.3 Analysis of Catastrophic Incidents: Six Building Blocks 95 4.3.1 Building Blocks 96 4.3.2 Combining Analyses for Prevention: A System’s View 101 4.4 Conclusion 105 References 106 Chapter 5: Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects 107 5.1 Introduction 107 5.1.1 Comment 111 5.2 Modeling Physical Modes of Failure: Examples from Flow Rates 120 5.3 Statistical Modeling: Brief Review to Complete Earlier Discussions 122 5.3.1 Monte Carlo Simulations 135 5.3.2 Comment 140 5.4 Conclusion 141 References 142 Chapter 6: Preferences, Choices, and Probabilistic Dominance: An Overview 144 6.1 Introduction 144 6.2 Making Probabilistic Choices: Lotteries, Time, and Dominance 148 6.2.1 Probabilistic (Stochastic) Dominance 151 6.3 Conclusion 154 References 155 Chapter 7: Heterogeneous and Uncertain Knowledge: Beyond Probabilities 156 7.1 Introduction 156 7.2 Cause and Effect 159 7.3 Integration and Fusion of Knowledge and Information 161 7.3.1 Meta-Analysis 163 7.4 Knowledge and Information, Fusion 167 7.4.1 Fuzzy Modeling 168 7.4.2 Dempster-Shafer (DS) Measures and Their Combination 172 7.4.3 Bayesian Networks 173 7.5 Individual Expert Opinions and Group Agreement 175 7.6 Conclusion 177 References 178 Chapter 8: Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-Making 180 8.1 Introduction 180 8.2 Aggregating Opinions for Decision-Making 181 8.3 Choices by Voting or Ranking 182 8.3.1 Voting 184 8.3.2 Ranking 185 8.3.3 Discussion 187 8.4 Aggregating Vague and Contradictory Evidence: A Bayesian Method 188 8.4.1 Comment 190 8.5 Conclusion 192 References 192 Index 194 Front Matter ....Pages i-xxii Black Swans, Dragon-Kings, and Other Catastrophes: Caught Between Infinitesimals and Googols (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 1-24 Policy and Legal Aspects of Precautionary Choices (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 25-48 Catastrophes, Disasters, and Calamities: Concepts for Their Assessment (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 49-65 Catastrophic Incidents: Critical Information and Knowledge (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 67-90 Uncertainty: Probabilistic and Statistical Aspects (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 91-127 Preferences, Choices, and Probabilistic Dominance: An Overview (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 129-140 Heterogeneous and Uncertain Knowledge: Beyond Probabilities (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 141-164 Aggregating Judgments to Inform Precautionary Decision-Making (Paolo F. Ricci)....Pages 165-178 Back Matter ....Pages 179-187