An economic analysis of conflicts : with an application to the Greek Civil War, 1946-1949

This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, local socio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed. Front Matter....Pages i-xxi Introduction: Economic Analysis and Civil Wars....Pages 1-12 The Greek Civil War 1946–1949: Main Events and Data....Pages 13-24 Static Models of Conflict....Pages 25-39 Models of Repression and Inclusion....Pages 41-60 Dynamic Models of Conflict....Pages 61-81 Estimation of Conflict Dynamics....Pages 83-93 A Model of Intertemporal Conflict....Pages 95-113 The Economic Impact of Civil Wars: A Production Function Approach....Pages 115-133 The Comparative Economic Cost of Civil Wars....Pages 135-142 A Critical Appraisal....Pages 143-151 Appendix: Data Sources and Definitions....Pages 153-160