AI and Analytics for Public Health: Proceedings of the 2020 INFORMS International Conference on Service Science (Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics)

This volume offers the state-of-the-art research and developments in service science and related research, education and practice areas. It showcases emerging technology and applications in fields including healthcare, energy, finance, information technology, transportation, sports, logistics, and public services. Regardless of size and service, a service organization is a service system. Because of the socio-technical nature of a service system, a systems approach must be adopted to design, develop, and deliver services, aimed at meeting end users’ both utilitarian and socio-psychological needs. Effective understanding of service and service systems often requires combining multiple methods to consider how interactions of people, technology, organizations, and information create value under various conditions. Chapters highlight ways to approach such technical challenges in service science and are based on submissions from the 2020 INFORMS International Conference on Service Science. Preface ICSS 2020 Committees Program Committee Conference Organizing Committee Best Student Paper Award Committee Best Conference Paper Award Committee Contents Epidemic Informatics and Control: A Review from System Informatics to Epidemic Response and Risk Management in Public Health 1 Introduction 2 Epidemic Challenges to Our Society 2.1 Health System Challenges 2.2 Economic Challenges 3 Measure the Epidemic Dynamics 3.1 Testing and Sampling 3.2 Spatiotemporal Surveillance of Epidemic Processes 3.3 Data Management and Visualization 4 Analyze the Data for Epidemic Insights 4.1 Descriptive Analytics 4.1.1 Correlation Analysis 4.1.2 Regression Modeling 4.2 Spatiotemporal Analytics 4.3 Privacy-Preserving Data Analytics 5 Improve the Resilience of Health Systems 5.1 Artificial Intelligence for Smart and Interconnected Health Systems 5.2 Healthcare Resource Allocation for Coverage Control 5.3 Re-design of Health Systems 6 Prescriptive Analytics – Control the Spread 6.1 Simulation Modeling and Computer Experiments 6.2 Epidemic Simulation in the Spatial Network 6.3 Computer Experiments of NPIs 7 Conclusions References Private vs. Pooled Transportation: Customer Preference and Congestion Management 1 Introduction 2 Data 2.1 Descriptive Evidence 3 Choice Model 4 Estimation 4.1 Endogeneity 4.2 Instruments 4.3 Control Function Approach to Estimation 4.4 Results from the Choice Model 5 Counterfactuals 5.1 Applying Percentage Surcharges to a Congestion Zone 5.2 Offering Discounts to Users 5.3 Improving Service Features 6 Conclusion References Optimal Dispatch in Emergency Service System via Reinforcement Learning 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Markov Decision Process Formulation 3.1 State Space 3.2 Action Space 3.3 Policy Space 3.4 Costs 3.5 Transition Probabilities with Augmented Transitions 3.6 Bellman's Equation 4 Post-Decision State Formulation 5 Temporal Difference Learning with Post-Decision States 6 Numerical Results 7 Conclusion References Towards Understanding the Dynamics of COVID-19: An Approach Based on Polynomial Regression with Adaptive Sliding Windows 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 Data Sources 2.2 Extracting Dynamic Patterns of COVID-19 Time Series 2.3 Dealing with Structural Breakpoints of the Dynamics 2.4 Measuring the Similarity Among Segments 3 Results 3.1 Partitioning COVID-19 Time Series 3.2 Analyzing the Dynamics of the First Wave of the Outbreak 3.3 Comparing the Dynamics of the First and Second Outbreak 4 Conclusion References Capturing the Deep Trend of Stock Market for a Big Profit 1 Introduction 2 An Enhanced MACD Trading Algorithm 3 Deep Learning and Trading Strategies with Social and Economic Dynamics 3.1 Capturing the Deep Trend of Stock Market Using Deep Learning 3.2 Accounting for Behavioral and Social Finance to Continuously Enhance Trading Strategies 4 Conclusions References Analysis on Competitiveness of Service Outsourcing Industry in Yangtze River Delta Region 1 Introduction 2 Building Evaluation Index System Based on the Diamond Model 2.1 Diamond Model Theory 2.2 Selection of Service Industry Competitiveness Indicators Based on Grey Correlation Degree 3 Competitiveness Evaluation Based on Global Principal Component Analysis 3.1 Global Principal Component Analysis 3.2 Empirical Analysis 3.3 Empirical Results 4 Summary and Thinking 4.1 Status and Challenges 4.2 Countermeasures and Suggestions References OPBFT: Optimized Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerant Consensus Mechanism Model 1 Introduction 2 Related Work 3 Analysis of OPBFT Algorithms 3.1 Whole Thought 3.2 Optimized Consistency Protocol 3.3 Achievement of Consensus 3.4 Node Behavior Distinguish and Reputation Model 4 Simulation and Analysis of Results 4.1 Communication Overhead 4.2 Throughput 4.3 Delay 4.4 Security Analysis 5 Summary References Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Method Considered Text Information with an Application in E-Commerce 1 Introduction 2 Data 2.1 Raw Data 2.2 Data Preprocessing 3 Modeling Preparation 3.1 Indicator System Construction 3.2 LDA-Based Sentiment Analysis 4 Decision Making Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Method 4.1 The Foundation of Model 4.2 Results and Analysis (Run This Model in Python 3.7) 5 Conclusions References Optimal Resource Allocation for Coverage Control of City Crimes 1 Introduction 2 Research Background 3 Research Methodology 3.1 Crime Distribution Modeling 3.2 Optimal Coverage Control 3.3 Asymptotic Convergence of Optimal Allocation 4 Experimental Design and Results 4.1 Optimal Allocation of Law Enforcement Agents 4.2 Benchmark with Zone-Random Patrol and Uniform Allocation 5 Conclusions References Application of Internet of Things (IoT) in Inventory Management for Perishable Produce 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Design Methodology 3.1 Information Tag 3.2 Intelligent Sorting and Pricing System 4 Application of IOT in Inventory Management of Cherry 4.1 Problem Description 4.2 Assumptions 4.3 Application of IOT in the Inventory Management of Cherry 4.3.1 Scenario a. Traditional Way in the Inventory Management of Cherry 4.3.2 Scenario b. Applying IoT Technology in the Inventory Management of Cherry 4.3.3 Scenario c. Applying IoT Technology and Adjusted ANN Model in the Inventory Management of Cherry 4.4 Pricing and Inventory Updates 5 Conclusion References Modified Risk Parity Portfolios to Limit Concentration on Low Risk Assets in Multi-Asset Portfolios 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 Risk Parity Portfolio 2.2 Uniformly Bounded (UB) Risk Parity Portfolio 2.3 Differentially Bounded (DB) Risk Parity Portfolio 3 Results 3.1 In-Sample Performance 3.2 Out-of-Sample Performance 4 Conclusion Appendix (Table 7) References A Data Analysis Method for Estimating Balking Behavior in Bike-Sharing Systems 1 Introduction and Background 1.1 Previous Work on Bike-Sharing Demand Analysis 1.2 Contribution of This Paper 2 Problem Description: Estimation of Balking Threshold and Timing of Balking Decision 2.1 The Research Subjects and Their Balking Behavior 2.2 Possible Scenarios 3 Methodology 3.1 The Discrete-Event Simulation Model 3.2 Synthetic Data Generated by the Simulation Model 3.3 The Proposed Heuristic Data Analysis Method 4 Implementation and Results 5 Conclusions and Future Research References The Impact of Scalability on Advisory and Service Delivery Efforts of Nonprofits 1 Introduction 2 Related Literature 3 Model 4 Results 5 Conclusion References Green Location-Routing Problem with Delivery Options 1 Introduction 2 Model Formulation 2.1 Problem Statement 2.2 Master Problem 2.3 The Locker Coverage Service Subproblem 2.4 The Shortest Path Problem with Battery Driving Range Constraints 3 Methodology 3.1 Branching Rules 3.2 A Tight Upper Bound 4 Computational Experiments 4.1 Description of Problem Instances 4.2 Computational Performance of the B&P Algorithm 4.3 Sensitivity Analysis for the GLRP-DO 5 Summary References Molecular Bioactivity Prediction of HDAC1: Based on Deep Neural Nets 1 Introduction 2 Experimental Section 2.1 Data Set 2.2 Feature Competition and Extraction 2.3 DNNs Trained with Molecular Attribute Descriptors 2.4 DNNs Trained with Molecular Fingerprints 3 Metrics 4 Results and Analytics 5 Conclusion References Risk Assessment Indicators for Technology Enterprises: From the Perspective of Complex Networks 1 Introduction 2 Risk Network Construction 3 Construction of Risk Metrics 4 Empirical Test of Risk Metrics 5 Conclusion References Subsidy Design for Personal Protective Equipments (PPEs) Adoption 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Model 4 Analysis 5 Conclusion References Early Detection of Rumors Based on BERT Model 1 Introduction 2 Related Work 3 Method 4 Experimental Setup and Results 4.1 Dataset 4.2 Evaluation Methodology 4.3 Experiments 5 Conclusions References Research on the Cause of Personal Accidents in Electric Power Production Based on Capacity Load Model 1 Introduction 2 Accident Data Resource 3 Construction of Personal Accident Causative Chain Network 3.1 Model Hypothesis 3.2 Accident Causative Chain Representation 3.3 Construction of the Causative Chain Network of Personal Accidents 4 Research on the Propagation Mechanism of Node Load 4.1 Node Status, Initial Load and Capacity 4.2 The Distribution Mechanism of Node Load 4.3 The Propagation Evolution Mechanism of Node Load 5 Analysis of the Successive Failure Process of Causal Nodes 5.1 Parameter Setting 5.2 Demonstration of the Formation Process of the Accident Causal Chain 6 Conclusions References A Simulation Optimization Approach for Precision Medicine 1 Introduction 2 Problem Formulation 3 The Optimal Budget Allocation and an Asymptotic Optimal Algorithm for Precision Medicine 4 Case Study: Personalized Management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease 5 Summary References Research on Patent Information Extraction Based on Deep Learning 1 Introduction 2 Related Work 2.1 Open Information Extraction 2.2 SAO Structure Extraction of Patent 3 Method 3.1 Pre-trained Model 3.2 BiLSTM Model 3.3 CRF Model 4 Experimental Setup and Results 4.1 Data Set 4.2 Triad and Feature Extraction Experiment 4.2.1 Data Annotation 4.2.2 Parameter Settings 4.2.3 Comparison Experiment Settings 4.2.4 Experimental Results and Analysis 4.3 Data Post-processing Experiment 4.3.1 Data Pre-processing 4.3.2 Experimental Settings 4.3.3 Experimental Results and Analysis 5 Conclusion and Future Work References Electric Power Personal Accident Characteristics Recognition Based on HFACS and Latent Class Analysis 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 Modified Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Electric Power Personal Accidents 2.1.1 Organizational Influences 2.1.2 Unsafe Supervision 2.1.3 Preconditions for Unsafe Acts 2.1.4 Unsafe Acts 2.2 Latent Class Analysis (LCA) 3 Model Construction and Implementation 3.1 Procedure of Electric Power Personal Accident Characteristic Pattern Recognition Model 3.2 Empirical Analysis 3.2.1 Data Sources 3.2.2 Analysis of Model Fitting and Determination of Class Number 3.2.3 Name the Classes and Discuss Their Characteristics 3.2.4 Management Countermeasures and Suggestions 4 Conclusion References Sentiment Analysis Based on Bert and Transformer 1 Introduction 2 Related Research 3 Research Framework 3.1 Self-Attention Model 3.2 BERT Model 4 Experimental Result and Analysis 4.1 Experimental DATASET 4.2 Evaluation 4.3 Experimental Results 5 Summary References Collection and Analysis of Electricity Consumption Data: The Case of POSTECH Campus 1 Introduction 2 Infrastructure for Collection and Analysis of Electricity Consumption Data 2.1 AMI Architecture at POSTECH Campus 2.2 Data Monitoring and Sharing System of the OIBC Platform 3 Analysis of Electricity Consumption Patterns in POSTECH Campus 4 Discussion 5 Conclusion References Balance Between Pricing and Service Level in a Fresh Agricultural Products Supply Chain Considering Partial Integration 1 Introduction 2 Supply Chain Profit Model Considering Integration 2.1 Supply Chain Structures 2.2 Assumptions 2.3 Profit Model Under NI, PI and CI 3 Comparison Analysis 4 Conclusions Appendix References A Stacking-Based Classification Approach: Case Study in Volatility Prediction of HIV-1 1 Introduction 2 Research Background 3 Materials and Methods 3.1 Datasets 3.2 The Ensemble Network Method 3.2.1 Stage One: Training Base Classifiers 3.2.2 Stage Two: Training Meta-Learner 4 Results and Discussions 5 Conclusions References Social Relations Under the Covid-19 Epidemic: Government Policies, Media Statements and Public Moods 1 Introduction 2 Analysis Process and Method 2.1 Data Acquisition and Preprocessing 2.2 Emotional Analysis 2.3 Cross Correlation Analysis Method 2.4 MF-DCCA Model 3 Empirical Analysis and Discussion 3.1 Emotional Analysis Results 3.2 Proof of Cross Correlation 3.3 Multifractal Analysis 4 Conclusion and Discussion References A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding the Progression of Alzheimer's Disease 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 3 Alzheimers Disease Stages 4 Materials and Methods 4.1 Data Description and Analysis 4.2 Data Preprocessing 5 Regression Model to Analyze the Features Contributing to AD Progressions 5.1 Regresion Modeling of AD Porgressions 5.2 Feature Importance Analysis 6 Conclusions References Modelling the COVID-19 Epidemic Process of Shenzhen and the Effect of Social Intervention Based on SEIR Model 1 Introduction 2 Data and Method 2.1 Data Description 2.2 Modified SEIR Model 3 Parameter Estimation 3.1 Transmission Rate 3.2 Recovery Rate 3.3 Incubation Rate 4 Results and Discussions 5 Conclusion References Artificial Intelligence – Extending the Automation Spectrum 1 Introduction 2 Historical Background of Decision-Making 3 Artificial Intelligence – A Contemporary Perspective of Decision-Making 4 Extending the Automation Spectrum 5 Conclusion A.1 Appendix A – Sample AI Applications References Robust Portfolio Optimization Models When Stock Returns Are a Mixture of Normals 1 Introduction 2 Standard Optimization Models 2.1 Markowitz Model 2.2 Conditional Value-At-Risk Model 3 Robust Optimization Models 3.1 Markowitz Model 3.1.1 Polyhedral Uncertainty for Mean 3.1.2 Uncertainty for Mean and Covariance Matrix 3.2 Conditional Value-At-Risk Model Under Mixture Distribution 3.2.1 Polyhedral Uncertainty for Mean 3.2.2 Uncertainty for Mean and Covariance Matrix 4 Computational Experiments 4.1 Performance of the Markowitz Models 4.1.1 The Standard Model 4.1.2 The Robust Model with Budgeted Uncertainty 4.1.3 The Robust Model with Ellipsoidal Uncertainty 4.2 Performance of the CVaR Models Under Mixture Distribution 4.2.1 The Robust Model with Budgeted Uncertainty 4.2.2 The Robust Model with Ellipsoidal Uncertainty 5 Conclusion References Two-Stage Chance-Constrained Telemedicine Assignment Model with No-Show Behavior and Uncertain Service Duration 1 Introduction 2 Two-Stage Chance-Constrained Programming Model 3 Enumeration-Based C&CG Solution Method 4 Numerical Experiment 5 Concluding Remarks References Exploring Social Media Misinformation in the COVID-19 Pandemic Using a Convolutional Neural Network 1 Introduction 2 Data 2.1 Data Collection 2.2 Preprocessing 2.3 Labeling 3 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) Model 4 Case Study 5 Conclusion and Future Work References Personalized Predictions for Unplanned Urinary Tract Infection Hospitalizations with Hierarchical Clustering 1 Introduction 2 Data Collection and Variable Quantification 3 Method 3.1 Hierarchical Clustering Approach 3.2 Baseline Approach 3.3 Evaluation Metrics 4 Results 5 Conclusion 6 Limitations and Future Research References Risks Brought by Competition: Investment and Merger of Internet Enterprises 1 Introduction 2 Risk of Strategic Acquisition 3 Risk Volatility Model (RFR) 4 Assessment Strategies 5 Conclusion References Correction to: Artificial Intelligence – Extending the Automation Spectrum