Age of Fire Is Over, The: A New Approach to the Energy Transition

The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.This book proposes an alternative approach.The Age of Fire Is Over: A New Approach to the Energy Transition finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations but rather by evolutions in demand patterns.Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire Is Over argues that the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. In the future, key technologies will significantly transform demand and provide services at a fraction of today's cost or offer new services not yet imagined. To a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are driven by such evolutions, largely inevitable and often unanticipated, because they provide societies with greater benefits: lower costs, more jobs, and rapid adaptation.This book closes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which — instead of replicating an approach from the past — should focus on these demand transformations to both advance civilization and mitigate climate change.With Foreword by Jean-Pascal Tricoire, Schneider Electric Chief Executive Officer. Contents Foreword About the Author List of Figures Part 1 Setting the Debate Right Chapter 1 What Truly Drives Energy Transitions Is Not What We May Think Is there an alternative course that could be charted, building on lessons from the past? What Is Energy? A Brief History of Energy Transitions The origins The first industrial revolution The second industrial revolution A historic moment of innovation Long, Complex and Entangled, Demand-Driven Transitions Energy transitions overlap Energy transitions take time and build on the old system Energy transitions are a byproduct of demand innovations The Upcoming Energy Transition Will Not Be as Experts Currently Frame It References Chapter 2 The Current So-Called Energy Transition Has Not Yet Started The Initial Kick What about a new energy transition then? Not-So-New Energy Sources “This giant [free] nuclear reactor in the sky” (E. Musk) Other well-known renewable energies The most recent energy source, the atom — but not mature yet Energy density: Is it really a problem? Energy return on investment Energy is good as long as it is there What should we take away from this brief review? Digital Everywhere — Even Where We Do Not Expect It Computing supremacy Always on Digital everywhere, for better or for worse Science fiction, for real Working at an Atomic Scale Nothing Has Happened Yet References Chapter 3 The Upcoming Energy Transition Will Be a Byproduct of Greater Changes at Stake An Inefficient Economy Massive waste Significant assets underutilization A Fragile Society Energy and resources Trade Social contract A fragile society Sinking the Spaceship Pollution Climate change How to Take It Forward? References Part 2 The “North Star” Chapter 4 There Is a Stunning Potential to Do the Same Things ... Much Better Ultra-Efficient Buildings The Edge Blended uses Consumer-centricity Space and energy optimization “Electronic orchestra” And construction will also evolve Buildings are in for a significant change Ultra-Efficient Industries The twentieth-century disruption Best available technologies Process intensification Electrification Digital everywhere Circularity at the core of the next wave of innovation What then will the future of industrial production be? Ultra-Efficient Mobility Multimodal mobility Electrification Transport as a service Autonomous vehicles Future of transport Ultra-Efficient Infrastructure Huge energy productivity potential Systemic efficiency Smart sector integration Infrastructure is in for a big disruption The Next Stage of Economic Development Will Be Human-Centricity What it means for energy Drivers of and challenges to adoption A human-centric economy References Chapter 5 Are We Too Big to Fail, or Is It the Opposite? Fragile societies Can recipes from the past still work? Resilient Resources Circularity A new periodic table of new materials Food and water revolution Harvesting free, locally available energy Electrons to replace molecules Resilient resources system Resilient Trade Global but fragile Circularity, again Decentralized manufacturing Additive manufacturing Software supersedes hardware Happy deglobalization in an interconnected world? Resilient Society Information Education Future of work Financing More equal, more fragmented, yet interconnected? The Next Stage of Our Social Construct Will Be Decentralization Technology to the rescue More decentralization Major impact on the energy system Drivers of and challenges to adoption A decentralized society References Chapter 6 When We Reconcile with Our Original Beliefs Three Revolutions Must Take Place Air pollution Water pollution Soil pollution It can only get worse The true cost of pollution Reverse innovation Three revolutions must take place Agriculture Revolution Food dependencies Bridging the productivity gap Twenty-first-century agriculture Industrial Revolution Industrial waste, at end-use Industrial waste, in manufacturing A new periodic table, with new materials Energy Revolution Global picture Depollution at point of use Depollution of energy supply, mainly an electricity problem Two-thirds emissions reduction The Central Role of Water The Next Stage of Our Civilization Will Be About Reconnecting with Nature Civilization progress, at the expense of the planet Three revolutions to prevent a catastrophe and rebuild a contract with nature Reverse innovation and a less Westernized philosophy of life Major impact on the energy system Drivers of and challenges to adoption A civilization that reconciles itself with nature References Chapter 7 The Future Will Be Very Different from the Way We Currently Conceive It The World in 30 Years Innovation-on-demand is truly at the heart of the upcoming energy transition Making the economy more efficient Building a more resilient society Reinventing a harmonious relationship with nature A new world is taking shape The Age of Fire Is Over Unexpected changes to the energy system Significant evolution of existing demand Rise of digital technologies in the energy mix New demand for twenty-first-century agriculture New demand in a water-scarce world Other rebounds in new demand The Age of Fire Is Over Hence the title of this book Critical impact on power infrastructure The world in 30 years will look very different from what we think References Part 3 Riding the Inevitable Chapter 8 Let’s Not Be Disappointed: It Will Mostly Look Like an Imperfect Patchwork of Changes Different Innovations, Different Adoptions Enabling Adoption: A Deeper Look Buildings Industry Mobility Agriculture Water Society Infrastructure Five Key, Entangled Challenges, and What to Take Away from Them Technology Business models Competency and culture Policies New economies Entangled challenges What to take away? References Chapter 9 What Will Matter Now Is to Roll Up Our Sleeves Accelerating Adoption: What It Will Take to Change Unpacking the issue Different timings per sector: Buildings and infrastructure Different timings per sector: Mobility Different timings per sector: Industry Different timings per sector: Agriculture and water Different timings per sector: Social innovations Putting a Timeline to Change Only at the beginning of the change process Interdependent innovations Policies key enabler Can we sketch a timeline? Priming the Pump of Change References Conclusion It’s Only the Beginning ... Good News! Change the lens through which we look at energy transitions The Age of Fire Is Over Not all this will happen overnight though Lead by hope Reference Index "The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This book proposes an alternative approach. The Age of Fire Is Over: A New Approach to the Energy Transition finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations but rather by evolutions in demand patterns. Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire Is Over argues that the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. In the future, key technologies will significantly transform demand and provide services at a fraction of today's cost or offer new services not yet imagined. To a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are driven by such evolutions, largely inevitable and often unanticipated, because they provide societies with greater benefits: lower costs, more jobs, and rapid adaptation. This book closes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which - instead of replicating an approach from the past - should focus on these demand transformations to both advance civilization and mitigate climate change"-- "The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This book proposes an alternative approach. The Age of Fire is Over: A New Approach to the Energy Transition finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations, but rather by evolutions in demand patterns. This author argues that - contrary to common thought - the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire is Over examines the extent to which key technologies can significantly transform demand, i.e., provide the same service at a fraction of cost or offer new services not yet imagined. The conclusion is that, to a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are beneficial for society and inevitable: leading to lower costs, more jobs, and fast adaptation. This book closes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which - instead of replicating an approach from the past - would truly help advance civilization"-- Provided by publisher The heart of the contemporary argument on climate change and energy transition focuses on how energy supply should be decarbonized to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This book proposes an alternative approach. The Age of Why All Existing Forecasts on the Energy Transition Are Wrong finds that energy transitions are not driven by supply-side driven transformations, but rather by evolutions in demand patterns. This author argues that contrary to common thought the so-called Energy Transition has not yet started. Exploring the potential of recently emerged key technologies, The Age of Fire explores the extent to which key technologies can significantly transform demand, i.e., provide the same service at a fraction of cost or offer new services not yet imagined. The conclusion is that, to a large extent, energy paradigm shifts are beneficial for society and leading to lower costs, more jobs, and fast adaptation. This book concludes with key novel recommendations for government institutions to accelerate the energy transition, which instead of replicating an approach from the past would truly help advance civilization.