Against the Gods : The Remarkable Story of Risk (Hardcover)--by Peter L. Bernstein [1996 Edition] ISBN: 9780471121046

A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller'Ambitious and readable... an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism.'—The New York Times'An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book.'—The Wall Street Journal'A lively panoramic book... Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it.'—Business Week'Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read.'—The Economist'[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world.'—Worth'No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement.'—Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers'With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it.'—John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard UniversityIn this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.'An extremely readable history of risk.'—Barron's'Fascinating... this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face.'—Money'A singular achievement.'—Times Literary Supplement'There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company.'—The Australian Against The Gods, A Narrative That Reads Like A Novel, Chronicles The Remarkable Intellectual Adventure That Liberated Humanity From The Oracles And Soothsayers By Means Of The Powerful Tools Of Risk Management That Are Available To Us Today. This Is A Richly-woven Tale Of Greek Philosophers And Arab Mathematicians, Of Merchants And Scientists, Gamblers And Philosophers, World-renowned Intellects And Obscure But Inspired Amateurs Who Helped Discover The Modern Methods Of Putting The Future At The Service Of The Present, Replacing Helplessness Before The Fates With Choice And Decision.--jacket. To 1200: Beginnings -- The Winds Of The Greeks And The Role Of The Dice -- As Easy As 1,2,3 -- 1200-1700: A Thousand Outstanding Facts -- The Renaissance Gambler -- The French Connection -- The Remarkable Notions Of The Remarkable Notions Man -- 1700-1900: Measurement Unlimited -- Considering The Nature Of Man -- The Search For Moral Certainty -- The Supreme Law Of Unreason -- The Man With The Sprained Brain -- Peapods And Perils -- The Fabric Of Felicity -- 1900-1960: Clouds Of Vagueness And The Demand For Precision -- The Measure Of Our Ignorance -- The Radically Distinct Notion -- The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories -- The Strange Case Of The Anonymous Stockbroker -- Degrees Of Belief: Exploring Uncertainty -- The Failure Of Invariance -- The Theory Police -- The Fantastic System Of Side Bets -- Awaiting The Wildness. Peter L. Bernstein. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 353-364) And Indexes. Business Week Best Business Books Global Business Book Awards. Edwin G. Booz Prize People constantly make choices, arrive at decisions, and take risks. Savers buy stocks, doctors perform operations, poker players figure the odds, and business managers launch new products. Without the instruments of risk management, such decisions would be impossible, because no one could figure out the likelihood of success. Yet the idea that we need not listen to soothsayers for advice is less than five hundred years old. This book blends biography with history and science to show how famous thinkers like Pascal, Bernoulli, Bayes, Keynes, Markowitz, Arrow and von Neumann paved the way from superstition to the supercomputer. But Bernstein tells of others as well, less known but equally important in developing the theory and practice of risk management. The book also explains significant concepts including probability, uncertainty, the distinction between chance and skill, the interactions between gambling and investing, and rational versus irrational decision-making.--From publisher description People constantly take risks. Savers buy stocks, doctors perform operations, poker players figure the odds, spaceships soar into the skies, and business managers launch new products. Without the instruments of risk management, such decisions would be impossible, because no one could figure the likelihood of successful outcomes. This book blends biography with history and science to show how the concept of risk, and tools for managing it, were developed. It traces the role of such famous thinkers as Pascal, Bernoulli, Bayes, Keynes Markowitz, Arrow and von Neumann, as well as other, less well-known but equally important men, including a few inveterate gamblers, two ministers, an anonymous group of monks, a doctor, a button salesman, and a composer of operas. The book explains such concepts as probability, uncertainty, the distinction between chance and skill, the interactions between gambling and investing, and rational versus irrational decision-making None None TO 1200: BEGINNINGS 1200-1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS 1700-1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED 1900-1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION DEGREES OF BELIEF: EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY None None None None History of Probability, Statistics and Risk Management presented in a clear and comprehensible way.