African Climate and Climate Change: Physical, Social and Political Perspectives (Advances in Global Change Research (43))

Compared to many other regions of the world, Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and variability. Widespread poverty, an extensive disease burden and pockets of political instability across the continent has resulted in a low resilience and limited adaptative capacity of African society to climate related shocks and stresses. To compound this vulnerability, there remains large knowledge gaps on African climate, manifestations of future climate change and variability for the region and the associated problems of climate change impacts. Research on the subject of African climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach linking studies of environmental, political and socio-economic spheres. In this book we use different case studies on climate change and variability in Africa to illustrate different approaches to the study of climate change in Africa from across the spectrum of physical, social and political sciences. In doing so we attempt to highlight a toolbox of methodologies (along with their limitations and advantages) that may be used to further the understanding of the impacts of climate change in Africa and thus help form the basis for strategies to negate the negative implications of climate change on society. Cover 1 ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH VOLUME 43 3 African Climate and Climate Change 4 ISBN 9789048138418 5 Contents 6 Contributors 8 Introduction 11 1 General Background 11 2 Uncertainty over Climate Change 12 3 Reasons for Particularly High Vulnerability of Africa 14 4 Expected Impacts of Climate Change on Africa 15 5 Options for Reducing Vulnerability 17 6 Structure of Book 19 References 20 Large Scale Features Affecting Ethiopian Rainfall 23 1 Introduction 23 2 Data and Methods 25 2.1 Data 25 2.1.1 Rain Gauge Data 25 2.1.2 Other Data 27 2.2 Methods 27 3 Large Scale Features Associated with Kiremt Rainfall Anomalies 27 3.1 Upper Level Tropospheric Wind and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) 28 3.2 Stratospheric Influence - Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) 30 3.3 African Easterly Jet (AEJ) 33 3.4 Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 35 3.5 Low Level Humidity 36 3.6 Low Level wind 36 3.7 Low Level Pressure 39 3.8 ENSO 39 3.9 Discussion on Kiremt Large Scale Features 43 4 Large Scale Features Associated with Belg Rainfall Anomalies 46 4.1 Sub-Tropical Westerly Jet (STWJ) 46 4.2 Low Level Humidity 47 4.3 Low Level Wind 51 4.4 Low Level High Pressures 51 4.5 ENSO 53 4.6 Indian Ocean Related Teleconnections 54 4.7 Discussion on Belg Season Large Scale Features 55 5 Summary and Conclusions 57 References 59 Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models 61 1 Introduction 61 2 Models, Observations and Methodologies 64 3 Ethiopian Rainfall in HadAM3 and HiGAM 66 3.1 The Geographical Distribution of Kiremt Rainfall 66 3.2 The Seasonal Cycle of Rainfall in Ethiopia 66 4 Interannual Variability of Ethiopian Rainfall 69 4.1 Kiremt Rainfall Time-Series 70 4.2 Kiremt Rainfall and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies 72 5 Conclusions and Discussion 77 References 78 Extreme Rainfall Events over Southern Africa 81 1 Introduction 82 2 Data and Model Details 83 2.1 Satellite-Derived and Reanalysis Data 83 2.2 Model Details 84 3 Definition and Identification of Extremes, Associated SST Anomalies and Model Experiments 85 3.1 Definition and Identification of Extremes 85 3.2 Rainfall, Pressure and SST Anomalies Associated with Extremes 86 3.3 Model Experiments 88 4 Model Experiment Results: HadAM3 90 4.1 Rainfall Spatial Averages and Daily Rainfall Extremes 90 4.2 Pixel-by-Pixel Temporal Averages 92 4.2.1 Mean Daily Rainfall and Rainfall Variability 92 4.2.2 Large-Scale Atmospheric Associations with Daily Rainfall Means 93 5 Model Experiment Results: PRECIS 101 5.1 Rainfall Spatial Averages and Daily Rainfall Extremes 101 5.2 Pixel-by-Pixel Temporal Averages of Daily Rainfall 102 6 Conclusions 106 References 108 Understanding the Large Scale Driving Mechanisms of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa 111 1 Introduction/Rationale 112 2 Review of the Main Drivers of Central African Climatology 113 2.1 Convective Systems 113 2.2 The ITCZ 113 2.3 Sea Surface Temperature 114 2.4 Central African Jets 115 3 Teleconnections 117 3.1 EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 117 3.2 Large-Scale Circulation 117 4 Methodology 118 4.1 Data Sources 118 4.2 Regions 119 4.3 Composite Analysis 119 5 Analysis of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa 120 5.1 Region B (0--6S, 18--32E) -- Rainfall Seasonal Cycle and Time Series Analysis 121 5.2 Analysis of Region B's Wet and Dry Year Composites During the Primary Rainy Season (MAM) 121 5.3 Analysis of Region B's Wet and Dry Year Composites During the Secondary Rainy Season (SON) 122 5.4 Region E (3--5--N, 15--22E and 5--7--N, 22--32E) -- Rainfall Seasonal Cycle and Time Series Analysis 125 5.5 Cause of Extreme and Deficit Rainfall During the Apr--Oct Rainy Season 125 6 Summary of Findings 127 References 131 Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology in Africa: Case Studies of River Basin Water Resources 133 1 Introduction 133 2 Summary of Changes to the Hydrological Cycle in Africa 135 2.1 Historical Observations 135 2.2 Future Projections 136 2.3 Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts 138 3 Case Study I: The Okavango River System 139 3.1 Hydro-Climate and Development Context 139 3.2 Hydrological Modeling Tools 141 3.3 Methodology for Climate Impacts Simulation 143 3.4 Simulated Future Climate Change 144 3.5 Summary of Results from Okavango River Case Study 151 4 Case Study II: The Mitano River Basin, Uganda 152 4.1 The Hydro-Climate and Development Context 152 4.2 Hydrological Modeling 154 4.3 Methodology for Climate Impacts Simulation 155 4.4 Simulated Future Climate Change 155 4.5 Summary of Results from Mitano River Case Study and Implications for Water 158 5 Discussion and Conclusions 159 References 161 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Farmer Responses to Intra-seasonal Precipitation Trends in South Africa 165 1 Introduction 165 2 Climate Variability, Uncertainty and Change 167 2.1 Climate Variables: Informing Adaptation Research 167 3 Investigating Climate Variability Through Self Organising Mapping 168 3.1 Study Region Characteristics 170 4 Living with Risk and Uncertainty 173 5 Recognising Changes in Climate 175 5.1 Changing Climate Risk 176 6 Strategies in Response to Disturbance and Change 177 6.1 Changes to Farming Practices: Short-Term Coping 179 6.2 Exploiting the Spatial and Temporal Diversity of the Landscape 181 6.3 Commercialising Livelihoods Through Individual and Collective Action 182 7 Discussion 184 8 Conclusion 185 References 186 Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach 189 1 Introduction 189 2 Climate Change Migration Modelling 191 3 Proactive Conceptual Development 194 4 Bounded Rationality 198 5 Reactive Conceptual Development 199 6 Conceptual Model Development 202 7 Translation into An Agent-Based Model 205 8 Model Validation 207 9 Conclusion 208 References 209 Index 213 9048138418,9789048138418 Springer 2011 Compared To Many Other Regions Of The World, Africa Is Particularly Vulnerable To The Effects Of Climate Change And Variability. Widespread Poverty, An Extensive Disease Burden, And Pockets Of Political Instability Across The Continent Has Resulted In A Low Resilience And Limited Adaptive Capacity Of African Society To Climate Related Shocks And Stresses. To Compound This Vulnerability, There Remains Large Knowledge Gaps On African Climate, Manifestations Of Future Climate Change And Variability For The Region And The Associated Problems Of Climate Change Impacts. Research On The Subject Of African Climate Change Requires An Interdisciplinary Approach Linking Studies Of Environmental, Political And Socio-economic Spheres. African Climate And Climate Change, Use Different Case Studies On Climate Change And Variability In Africa To Illustrate Different Approaches To The Study Of Climate Change In Africa From Across The Spectrum Of Physical, Social And Political Sciences. In Doing So We Attempt To Highlight A Toolboox Of Methodologies (along With Their Limitatiosn And Advantages) That May Be Used To Further The Understanding Of The Impacts Of Climate Change In Africa And Thus Help Form The Basis For Strategies To Negate The Negative Implications Of Climate Change On Society. --book Jacket. Charles J. R. Williams, Dominic R. Kniveton, Editors. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Front Matter....Pages i-viii Introduction....Pages 1-12 Large Scale Features Affecting Ethiopian Rainfall....Pages 13-50 Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models....Pages 51-69 Extreme Rainfall Events over Southern Africa....Pages 71-100 Understanding the Large Scale Driving Mechanisms of Rainfall Variability over Central Africa....Pages 101-122 Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology in Africa: Case Studies of River Basin Water Resources....Pages 123-153 Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Farmer Responses to Intra-seasonal Precipitation Trends in South Africa....Pages 155-178 Climate Change and Migration: A Modelling Approach....Pages 179-201 Back Matter....Pages 203-204