Advances in Social Simulation: Proceedings of the 16th Social Simulation Conference, 20–24 September 2021 (Springer Proceedings in Complexity)

This book covers the latest advances in applying agent-based modelling in social sciences. The Social Simulation Conference is the major global conference devoted to this topic. It is aimed at promoting social simulation and computational social science. This year’s special theme is “Social Simulation geared towards Post-Pandemic times”, focused not only on questions raised by the current pandemic but also on future challenges related to economic recovery, such as localization, globalization, inequality, sustainable growth and social changes induced by progressive digitalization, data availability and artificial intelligence. The primary audience of this book are scholars and practitioners in computational social sciences including economics, business, sociology, politics, psychology and urban studies. Preface Contents Contributors Sociality, Norms and Institutions Efficient Redistribution of Scarce Resources Favours Hierarchies 1 Introduction 1.1 Resource Models as Means of Redistribution 1.2 Previous Research 2 Methods 2.1 Model Design 2.2 Simulations, Model Parameters, and Variables 3 Results 4 Discussion 4.1 Present Findings 4.2 Model Validation: Intricacies in the Relations Between Resources and Redistribution Rules 5 Conclusion References Evaluation of COVID-19 Infection Prevention Measures Compatible with Local Economy 1 Introduction 1.1 COVID-19 Agent-Based Simulations 1.2 Summary of Related Studies and Positioning of This Study 2 COVID-19 Infection Model for Tourism Locations 2.1 Behaviour of Citizen 2.2 Progress of Infection and Symptoms 3 Estimating Effects of Infection Prevention Measures 4 Experiment Results 5 Discussion 6 Conclusion References DIPP: Diffusion of Privacy Preferences in Online Social Networks 1 Introduction 2 Modelling Privacy Preference Diffusion 2.1 SIR Model for Privacy Preference Diffusion 2.2 Trust 2.3 Co-ownership 3 Realization of the DIPP Model 4 Evaluation 4.1 Measurements 4.2 Experiments 5 Conclusion References Explaining and Resolving Norm-Behavior Inconsistencies—A Theoretical Agent-Based Model 1 Theoretical Background 1.1 Norm-Behavior Inconsistencies 1.2 A Norm-Based Theory of Decision-Making 2 Method 2.1 Agents’ Decision-Making 2.2 Norm Internalization and Its Effects on Decision-Making 3 Results 3.1 Explaining Norm-Behavior Inconsistencies 3.2 Resolving Norm-Behavior Inconsistencies 4 Discussion 4.1 Explaining and Resolving Norm-Behavior Inconsistencies 4.2 Limitations and Future Research 4.3 Conclusion References Towards More Realism in Pedestrian Behaviour Models: First Steps and Considerations in Formalising Social Identity 1 Introduction 2 Social Identity Approach: The Basics and Pedestrians 3 Social Identity Approach Formalisation 3.1 Formalisation 1: Identity Representation Decision 3.2 Formalisation 2: Salience versus Social Identification 3.3 Formalisation 3: Salient Identity → Behaviour 4 Discussion and Conclusion References Developing a Stakeholder-Centric Simulation Tool to Support Integrated Mobility Planning 1 Introduction 2 Tools and Methods for Integrated Urban Mobility Planning 3 Previous Work 4 Materials and Methods 4.1 Case Study: Bornstedt, Potsdam 4.2 Sprint and Agile Project Management 4.3 Tool and Data Warehouse 4.4 Expert Interviews and Stakeholder Workshop 5 Preliminary Results: Identifying the Key Challenges 5.1 Challenge 1: Enhancing Collective Visioning 5.2 Challenge 2: Supporting Communication 5.3 Challenge 3: Increasing Credibility 6 Key Takeaways and Further Steps References Support Local Empowerment Using Various Modeling Approaches and Model Purposes: A Practical and Theoretical Point of View 1 Introduction 2 Scope: Modeling and Simulation for Local People Empowerment in Common Pool Resource Management 2.1 Local People Empowerment Using Agent Based Modeling and Simulation Techniques 2.2 Modeling and Simulation of Common Pool Resource Management Issues in Floodplains 3 Application: The Management of Renewable Resources in the Floodplains of the Lower Amazon 4 The VarzeaSaga Set of Models: A Brief History of a 10-Year Long Modeling Process 5 Conclusion References Heterogeneous and Diverse Economic Agents Exploring Coevolutionary Dynamics Between Infinitely Diverse Heterogenous Adaptive Automated Trading Agents 1 Introduction 2 Coevolution in a Bounded Infinite Space: PRZI 3 Coevolution in an Unbounded Infinite Space: STGP 4 Discussion and Conclusion References Pay-for-Performance and Emerging Search Behavior: When Exploration Serves to Reduce Alterations 1 Introduction and Related Research 2 Outline of the Simulation Model 2.1 Structure and Decision Problem of the Organizations 2.2 Incentive Structure 2.3 Search Strategies and Formation of Expectations 2.4 Learning-Based Selection of Search Strategies 3 Simulation Experiments and Parameter Settings 4 Results and Discussion 4.1 On the Analysis of Experiments 4.2 Overview of Results 4.3 Discussion of Scenarios 5 Conclusion References Effects of Limited and Heterogeneous Memory in Hidden-Action Situations 1 Introduction 2 The Hidden-Action Model 3 Agent-Based Model Variant 4 Results 4.1 Parameterization 4.2 Simulations and Reported Performance Measure 4.3 Results and Discussion 5 Conclusion References Autonomous Group Formation of Heterogeneous Agents in Complex Task Environments 1 Introduction 2 Model 2.1 Task Environment 2.2 Agents 2.3 Individual Learning 2.4 Group Self-organization 2.5 Decision-Making Process 2.6 Scenarios and Sequencing 3 Results and Discussion 3.1 Results of the Simulation Experiments 3.2 Discussion 4 Conclusion References Exploring Regional Agglomeration Dynamics in Face of Climate-Driven Hazards: Insights from an Agent-Based Computational Economic Model 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 2.1 The Capital Good Sector 2.2 The Consumption Good Sector 2.3 Labour Market 2.4 Migration 2.5 Climate 2.6 Timeline of Event 3 Results 3.1 Agglomeration Dynamics 3.2 Agglomeration Dynamics and Climate Hazard 4 Conclusion References Dynamics of Wealth Inequality in Simple Artificial Societies 1 Introduction 2 Wealth Inequality Dynamics 2.1 Dynamic Relaxation Times 2.2 Equilibirum Inequality and Sensitivities 2.3 Natural Selection of Growth Parameters 3 Conclusions References Social Simulation and Games Cruising Drivers’ Response to Changes in Parking Prices in a Serious Game 1 Introduction 2 Literature Review 2.1 The Cruising Problem 2.2 Estimating Drivers’ Behavior 2.3 Serious Games 3 Methods 4 Results 4.1 Search Time 4.2 On-Street Distance from the Destination 5 Discussion 5.1 Limitations 5.2 Closing Remarks References Quantum Leaper: A Methodology Journey From a Model in NetLogo to a Game in Unity 1 Introduction 2 The Settings: The Backdrop and Environment for the Story 3 The Characters: Their Role and Purpose 4 The Journey: The Travel From an ABM to a Game 5 The Conflict Resolution: Where the Protagonist Finally Overcomes the Conflict, Learns to Accept It, or Is Ultimately Defeated by It 6 Conclusion References How Perceived Complexity Impacts on Comfort Zones in Social Decision Contexts—Combining Gamification and Simulation for Assessment 1 Introduction 2 State of the Art 3 Research Questions and Approach 4 Model Description 5 Results 5.1 Metrics 5.2 Analysis 6 Discussion 7 Outlook References A Hybrid Agent-Based Model to Simulate and Re-Think Post-COVID-19 Use Processes in Educational Facilities 1 Introduction 2 Re-Thinking Use Processes in Educational Facilities 2.1 The COVID-19 Impact on Behaviors and Use Processes in Educational Facilities 2.2 The Case Study 3 Literature Review 4 Methodology 5 The Hybrid Agent-Based Model 5.1 Framework 5.2 Use Process Modeling 5.3 ABM/Behavioral Simulation 5.4 Avatars/First-Person Experience 6 Impact of Simulation on Post-Covid-19 School Processes 7 Conclusions References Social Simulations—Theory and Applications Generation Gaps: An Agent-Based Model of Opinion Shifts Among Cohorts 1 Introduction 2 Methods 2.1 The Model 2.2 Empirical Data 2.3 Optimization, Simulations and Parameters Variation 3 Results 3.1 Decrease in Opinion Among Cohorts 3.2 Bias Inheritance of Opinions 3.3 Confidence Intervals (CI): Positive and Negative 3.4 Effect of Age on the Positive and Negative Impact of Interactions 4 Discussion References Comparison of Viral Information Spreading Strategies in Social Media 1 Introduction 2 Background and Previous Work 3 The Viral Information Spreading Model 3.1 Attitude Space 3.2 Agent Activities and Links 3.3 Seeding Infobits 3.4 Networks 3.5 Target Attitude 3.6 Seeding Strategies 4 Experiments and Results 5 Conclusion References An Evidence-Driven Model of Voting and Party Competition 1 Introduction 2 Model Description 2.1 Party Strategies 2.2 Opinion Formation 2.3 Voter Decision Strategies 2.4 External Influences 3 Simulated Scenarios 4 Discussion and Conclusion References Shrinking Housing’s Size: Using Agent-Based Modelling to Explore Measures for a Reduction of Floor Area Per Capita 1 Introduction 1.1 Previous Research in Switzerland 1.2 Measures to Reduce Floor Area Per Capita 2 Methods 2.1 Agent-Based Model 2.2 Simulations 3 Results 4 Discussion and Conclusion 4.1 Results in Perspective 4.2 Limitations 4.3 Recommendations and Future Research References The Problem with Bullying: Lessons Learned from Modelling Marginalization with Diverse Stakeholders 1 Introduction 2 Methodology 3 Results 3.1 First Modelling Choices 3.2 Diverse Feedback 3.3 Reflection on the Modelling Process and Further Literature Research 4 Discussion 4.1 Expectations Behind Modelled Concepts 4.2 Exploration of Alternatives 4.3 Proposed Solution 5 Conclusions and Word of Warning References On the Impact of Misvaluation on Bilateral Trading 1 Introduction 2 Bilateral Trading 2.1 Over-and Under-Misvaluation 2.2 Trading Equilibrium 2.3 Trading Dynamics 3 Agent Based Approach 3.1 Model 3.2 Results 4 Conclusions References Consumer Participation in Demand Response Programs: Development of a Consumat-Based Toy Model 1 Introduction 2 Related Work 2.1 The Role of Consumers in Demand Response Models 2.2 The Consumat Approach 3 Demand Response Consumers as ‘Consumats’: Model Description 3.1 Overview 3.2 Design Concepts 3.3 Details 4 Results 4.1 Variation in Time 4.2 Varying Input Parameters 5 Conclusion References Using MBTI Agents to Simulate Human Behavior in a Work Context 1 Introduction 2 Human Behavior in a Work Context 2.1 MBTI and Its Application in a Work Context 2.2 MBTI and BDI Agents 2.3 MADM Method 3 MBTI-based Agent Model 3.1 Seller-Buyer Model 3.2 Decision Attributes 3.3 Ranking the Alternatives 3.4 Basic Algorithm 4 Implementation and Preliminary Experiments 5 Conclusions References Exposure to Non-exhaust Emission in Central Seoul Using an Agent-based Framework 1 Introduction 2 Methods 2.1 Overview 2.2 A Summarised ODD Protocol 3 Sensitivity Analysis 3.1 Dispersion and Dilution 3.2 Health Loss and Recovery 4 Scenario Forecasting 4.1 Vehicle Restriction 4.2 Health Loss from NEE and PM10 Exposure 5 Conclusion 6 Data and Code Availability References Theoretical Sampling and Qualitative Empirical Model Validation 1 Introduction and Overview 2 Quantitative Versus Qualitative Validation of Simulation Models 2.1 Quantitative Validation on the Basis of Random Samples 2.2 Qualitative Model Validation on the Basis of Theoretical Samples 3 The Simulation of Political Protest as an Exemplary Application 3.1 The Model 3.2 A Plan for a Qualitative Model Validation 4 Summary References The Large-Scale, Systematic and Iterated Comparison of Agent-Based Policy Models 1 Model Comparison, Alignment, Replication and Reproduction 2 The Need for Model Intercomparison 3 Some Existing Model Comparison Projects 3.1 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIP) in the Climate Community 3.2 Other Examples 4 The Benefits of the Intercomparison Exercises and Collaborative Model Building 5 Lessons for ABM? 6 Additional Challenges for ABMs of Social Phenomena 7 Towards an Initial Proposal 8 Conclusion References Simulating Delay in Seeking Treatment for Stroke Due to COVID-19 Concerns with a Hybrid Agent-Based and Equation-Based Model 1 Introduction 2 Model 2.1 Society 2.2 Environment 2.3 Disease 2.4 Transportation 2.5 Schedule 3 Experiment 4 Results 4.1 Baseline Scenario 4.2 Single Peak 4.3 Multiple Peaks 4.4 Comparison of Scenarios 5 Conclusion References Modelling Energy Security: The Case of Dutch Urban Energy Communities 1 Introduction 2 4A’s Energy Security Concept 3 Research Methods and Data 3.1 Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) 3.2 Parameterizing Using Dutch Data 4 Model Conceptualization and Implementation 4.1 Modelling Purpose 4.2 Entities and State Variables 4.3 Interactions, Network and Adaptation 4.4 Model Initialization and Narrative 4.5 Technical Assumptions and Model Inputs 4.6 4As as Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) 4.7 Model Parameters and Experimental Setup 5 Results 5.1 Overview of Each KPI Individually 5.2 Most and Least Successful Energy Security Performances Based on All 4 KPIs 6 Discussion 7 Conclusion and Further Work References Towards Efficient Context-Sensitive Deliberation 1 Introduction 2 Related Work 2.1 Context 2.2 Contextual Action Framework for Computational Agents 3 Modelling 3.1 Context-Dependent Deliberation Cycle 3.2 Information Relevance and CAFCA Cell Transitioning 4 The Smoking Ban Simulation Using the Framework 5 Discussion and Conclusion References Better Representing the Diffusion of Innovation Through the Theory of Planned Behavior and Formal Argumentation 1 Introduction 2 Related Works 3 Proposed Model 3.1 Arguments 3.2 The Agents 3.3 The Dynamics of the Model 4 Application 4.1 Context 4.2 Parameterization of the Model 4.3 Analysis of the Stochasticity 4.4 Evolution of Agent Intention and Number of Adopters 5 Conclusion References Using Qualitative Data to Inform Behavioural Rules Documenting Data Use in a Model of Pandemic “Emotional Contagion” Using the Rigour and Transparency Reporting Standard (RAT-RS) 1 Introduction 2 The Emotional Contagion (EmotiCon) Project 3 Using Data to Inform the EmotiCon ABM 4 Operationalization 5 Conclusion and Next Steps References A Methodology to Develop Agent-Based Models for Policy Design in Socio-Technical Systems Based on Qualitative Inquiry 1 Introduction 2 Proposed Methodology 2.1 Phase 1: Framework Development 2.2 Phase 2: Model Development 2.3 Iterative Model and Framework Development 3 Methodology Application: A Case Study on Disaster Information Management in Jakarta 3.1 Case Study 3.2 Phase 1: Framework Development 3.3 Phase 2: Model Development 3.4 Iterative Framework Development 4 Discussion 5 Conclusions References Author Index