Advances in decision making under risk and uncertainty : [... a selection consisting of the best papers presented at the FUR XII Conference, held at LUISS in Roma, Italy, in June 2006

Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty. Cover......Page 1 THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY - SERIES C: GAME THEORY, MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH VOLUME 42......Page 2 Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty......Page 3 Copyright - ISBN: 9783540684367......Page 4 Preface......Page 5 Contents......Page 9 Contributors......Page 11 Part I: Uncertainty and Information Modeling......Page 14 Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating......Page 15 Dynamic Decision Making When Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience......Page 31 Representation of Conditional Preferences Under Uncertainty......Page 45 Subjective Information in Decision Making and Communication......Page 60 Part II: Risk Modeling......Page 74 Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Making: A Consistent Approach......Page 75 Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory......Page 100 Proposing a Normative Basis for the S-Shaped Value Function......Page 117 Part III: Experimental Individual Decision Making......Page 127 Individual Choice from a Convex Lottery Set: Experimental Evidence......Page 128 Temptations and Dynamic Consistency......Page 143 Monty Hall's Three Doors for Dummies......Page 157 Overconfidence in Predictions as an Effect of Desirability Bias......Page 169 Part IV: Experimental Interactive Decision Making......Page 187 Granny Versus Game Theorist: Ambiguity in Experimental Games......Page 188 Guessing Games and People Behaviours: What Can We Learn?......Page 210 The Determinants of Individual Behaviour in Network Formation: Some Experimental Evidence......Page 223 Brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. This work also introduces the reader to the subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty Mohammed Abdellaoui, John D. Hey, Editors. The Best Papers Presented At The Fur Xii Conference, Held At Luiss In Roma, Italy In June, 2006--p. V. Includes Bibliographical References.