Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases: In Pursuit of Virulence Management (Cambridge Studies in Adaptive Dynamics, Series Number 2)

Emerging diseases pose a continual threat to public health. Short multiplication time and high variability allow pathogens to evolve very rapidly. It is therefore imperative to incorporate evolutionary considerations into longer-term health management plans. The evolution of infectious disease is also an ideal test-bed for theories of evolutionary dynamics. This book combines both threads, taking stock of our current knowledge on the evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases, and setting out the goals for the management of virulent pathogens. Throughout the book, the fundamental concepts and techniques underlying the modelling are carefully explained in a unique series of integrated boxes. The book ends with an overview of novel options for virulence management in humans, farm animals, plants, wildlife populations and biological control schemes. Written for graduate students and researchers, Adaptive Dynamics of Infectious Diseases provides an integrated treatment of mathematical evolutionary modelling and disease management. Cover......Page 1 Frontmatter......Page 2 Contents......Page 8 Contributing Authors......Page 15 List of Boxes......Page 17 Notational Standards......Page 18 1 - Introduction......Page 20 A - Setting the Stage......Page 26 Introduction to Part A......Page 27 2.1 Introduction: Historical Background......Page 29 2.2 Virulence Depending on Transmission Modes......Page 30 2.3 Effects of Transmission Mode on Virulence......Page 37 2.4 Model of Virulence Evolution and Waterborne Transmission......Page 38 2.5 Discussion: Applications and Implications......Page 43 3.1 Introduction......Page 45 3.2 Microparasites versus Macroparasites......Page 46 3.3 Impact of Parasitism on Community Structure......Page 48 3.4 Example: The pan-African Rinderpest Epidemic......Page 50 3.5 Role of Genetic Diversity......Page 51 3.6 Myxomatosis and the Coevolution of Virulence Traits......Page 52 3.7 Evolutionary Race Between Host and Parasite......Page 53 3.9 Interspecific Transmission Influences Virulence......Page 54 3.10 Example: Pasteurella Outbreaks in Bighorn Sheep......Page 55 3.11 Potential Impact of Wildlife Diseases on Human Health......Page 56 3.12 Discussion......Page 57 4.1 Introduction......Page 58 4.2 Limitations of R0 Maximization......Page 59 4.3 Adaptive Dynamics Theory......Page 63 4.4 Pathogen Evolution......Page 64 4.5 Pathogen--Host Coevolution......Page 73 4.6 Discussion......Page 76 5.1 Introduction......Page 79 5.2 Optimal Antiparasite Strategies......Page 81 5.3 Parasite Evolutionary Responses......Page 84 5.4 Discussion......Page 87 B - Host Population Structure......Page 90 Introduction to Part B......Page 91 6.1 Introduction......Page 93 6.2 Theory of Multigenerational Epidemics......Page 94 6.3 Controlling Gypsy Moths by Genetically Engineered Viruses......Page 96 6.4 Discussion......Page 103 7.1 Introduction......Page 104 7.2 Epidemics on Contact Networks......Page 109 7.3 Mean-field Dynamics......Page 110 7.4 Across-network Dynamics......Page 111 7.5 Pair Dynamics......Page 113 7.6 Implications of Network Structure......Page 116 7.7 Evolutionary Stability......Page 118 7.8 Discussion......Page 120 8.1 Introduction......Page 123 8.2 Sources and Sinks: Pervasive in Host--Pathogen Systems?......Page 126 8.3 A Limiting Case: Two Coupled Patches......Page 127 8.4 On to Praxis......Page 135 8.5 Discussion......Page 137 C - Within-Host Interactions......Page 140 Introduction to Part C......Page 141 9.1 Introduction......Page 143 9.2 Superinfection......Page 144 9.3 Coinfection......Page 150 9.4 Discussion......Page 154 10.1 Introduction......Page 157 10.2 Coinfection and the Superinfection Limit......Page 158 10.3 Coexistence and the Superinfection Function......Page 162 10.4 Discussion......Page 166 11.1 Introduction......Page 169 11.2 Multiple Infection, Virulence, and Dispersal......Page 172 11.3 Indirect Effects......Page 176 11.4 Virulence Management......Page 180 11.5 Discussion......Page 182 12.1 Introduction......Page 184 12.2 Kin-selection Models of Virulence......Page 185 12.3 Conditional Virulence Strategies......Page 186 12.4 Genetically Fixed Virulence Strategies......Page 190 12.5 Within-host Competition and Between-host Fitness......Page 191 12.6 Management Implications......Page 196 12.7 Discussion......Page 197 D - Pathogen--Host Coevolution......Page 198 Introduction to Part D......Page 199 13.1 Introduction......Page 202 13.2 Mathematics of Cell Death......Page 203 13.3 Evolutionary Dynamics of Cell-death Signals......Page 206 13.4 Threshold Reversals......Page 207 13.5 Experimental Case Studies......Page 208 13.6 Lessons from Case Studies......Page 211 13.7 Testing the Model......Page 212 13.8 Medical Implications......Page 213 13.A The Cell-death Model: Assessment of Extrema......Page 214 14.1 Introduction......Page 216 14.2 Importance of Species and Space in Population Dynamics......Page 217 14.3 (Co)Evolution of Impact by Natural Enemies......Page 218 14.4 Discussion......Page 223 15.1 Introduction......Page 229 15.2 Simulating the Coevolution of Hosts and Pathogens......Page 231 15.3 Dynamically Maintained Polymorphism......Page 233 15.4 Host and Pathogen Evolution......Page 235 15.5 Heterozygosity versus Frequency-dependent Selection......Page 238 15.6 Discussion......Page 239 16.1 Introduction......Page 241 16.2 Discrete-time Genetics and Epidemic Diseases......Page 243 16.3 Discrete-time Genetics and Endemic Diseases......Page 246 16.4 Continuous Genetic Models......Page 247 16.5 Coevolution......Page 249 16.6 Discussion......Page 250 17.1 Introduction......Page 252 17.2 Gene-for-gene Interaction......Page 253 17.3 Coevolutionary Dynamics in Gene-for-gene Systems......Page 256 17.4 Discussion......Page 263 18.1 Introduction: Sex and Coevolution......Page 267 18.2 Sexual Selection......Page 269 18.3 Hypotheses for Parasite-driven Sexual Selection......Page 271 18.4 The Pathogen's View......Page 276 18.5 Implications for Virulence Management......Page 278 18.6 Discussion......Page 279 19.1 Introduction......Page 281 19.2 Phylogenetic Tools......Page 282 19.3 Case Studies......Page 286 19.4 Discussion......Page 294 E - Multilevel Selection......Page 296 Introduction to Part E......Page 297 20.1 Introduction......Page 299 20.3 Senescence Plasmids in Fungi......Page 300 20.4 Population Genetics of Senescence Plasmids: A Model......Page 301 20.5 Intragenomic Conflict and Virulence Management......Page 302 20.6 Discussion: Host Senescence and Pathogen Virulence......Page 303 21.1 Introduction......Page 305 21.2 Ecology and Evolution of Virulence with Hyperparasites......Page 306 21.4 Hyperparasitism in the Chestnut Blight System......Page 310 21.5 Previous Efforts at Virulence Management......Page 311 21.6 Virulence Management: Suggestions from Theory......Page 313 21.7 Discussion......Page 315 22.1 Introduction......Page 316 22.2 Spatial and Temporal Scales of Interaction......Page 318 22.3 Predator--Herbivore Dynamics on Individual Plants......Page 319 22.4 Tritrophic Game Theory and Metapopulation Dynamics......Page 326 22.5 Discussion......Page 337 22.A Evolutionarily Stable Herbivore Emigration Rate......Page 339 F - Vaccines and Drugs......Page 342 Introduction to Part F......Page 343 23.1 Introduction......Page 345 23.3 Dynamics of Infection: A Simple Model......Page 346 23.5 Gauging Antibiotic Therapy......Page 347 23.6 Treatment with Two Antibiotics: An Extended Model......Page 350 23.7 Multiple Antibiotic Therapy......Page 352 23.8 Discussion......Page 354 24.2 Theoretical Framework......Page 358 24.3 Case Studies from Infectious Diseases of Humans......Page 363 24.4 Discussion......Page 365 25.2 Maintenance of Pathogen Diversity in Single-locus Systems......Page 366 25.3 Multilocus Antigenic Diversity with Genetic Exchange......Page 368 25.4 Plasmodium falciparum: A Case Study......Page 372 25.5 Impact of Vaccination......Page 377 25.6 Discussion......Page 379 26.1 Introduction......Page 381 26.2 Biology, Diversity, and Impact of Two Pharyngeal Pathogens......Page 382 26.3 Conjugate Vaccines......Page 383 26.4 Serotype Replacement......Page 384 26.5 Role of Mathematical Models......Page 385 26.6 Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines versus Hib Vaccines......Page 387 26.8 Is Serotype Replacement Always Bad?......Page 389 26.9 Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Work......Page 391 26.10 Discussion......Page 393 G - Perspectives for Virulence Management......Page 394 Introduction to Part G......Page 395 27.1 Introduction......Page 398 27.2 Panoramic View of Virulence Evolution......Page 399 27.3 Conceptual Issues......Page 405 27.4 The Dialogue between Theorists and Empiricists......Page 408 27.5 Gaps in Current Knowledge......Page 412 27.6 Discussion: Toward Virulence Management......Page 416 28.2 Virulence Management of Diarrheal Diseases......Page 418 28.3 Virulence Management of Vectorborne Diseases......Page 423 28.5 Discussion: The Intervention Spectrum......Page 428 29.2 Time Needed for Resistance to Evolve......Page 432 29.3 Drugs and the Development of Resistance......Page 433 29.4 Problems in Managing Virulence in Wildlife......Page 434 29.5 Detecting the Impact of Infectious Diseases......Page 436 29.6 Pathogens and Parasites with Reservoir Hosts......Page 438 29.7 Manipulation of Infection at the Population Level......Page 439 29.8 Disease Risks of Wildlife Translocations......Page 440 29.9 Minimizing Disease Risks in Wildlife Translocations......Page 441 29.10 Discussion......Page 442 30.1 Introduction......Page 444 30.2 Virulence Evolution Made Simple......Page 446 30.3 Two-bag Model of Virulence Evolution......Page 448 30.4 Toward Virulence Management......Page 451 30.5 Discussion......Page 454 31.1 Introduction......Page 455 31.2 Two-faced Virulence......Page 456 31.3 Epidemiology, Genetics, and Evolution of Virulence......Page 457 31.4 Population Structure and Virulence Management......Page 462 31.5 Discussion......Page 465 32.1 Introduction......Page 467 32.2 At What Level Should Virulence be Considered?......Page 468 32.3 Is High Virulence Always Desirable?......Page 470 32.4 Is High Virulence a Stable Trait in Biocontrol Practice?......Page 471 32.5 How Can Virulence be Manipulated in the Field?......Page 473 32.6 Does Mass Rearing Affect Field Virulence?......Page 474 32.7 Pathogen Virulence Toward Herbivores and Their Predators......Page 475 32.8 Ecological and Evolutionary Response of the Pest......Page 476 32.9 Discussion......Page 477 33 - Epilogue......Page 479 References......Page 484 Index......Page 534 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis......Page 552 "Adaptive Speciation elucidates how selection driven by biological interactions can trigger the adaptive splitting of lineages. Recent advances in speciation theory are carefully explained and confronted with celebrated empirical examples of speciation under natural selection. With an emphasis on the potentially intricate interplay between geographic patterns and ecological processes of speciation, this book seeks to move beyond the default perception of speciation as a mere side effect of geographic isolation. The resulting perspective enables adaptive speciation to be appreciated as a major force in the generation of biological diversity. Written for students and researchers alike, this book provides a thorough treatment of the newest developments in speciation science."--Jacket

An integrated study of the evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases and the management of virulent pathogens.

Booknews

Reports results from a research program on virulence management, sponsored by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), that explores the possibility of interfering with or even redirecting the evolution of virulence to achieve desired parasite goals. The 31 papers analyze the implications of host population structure for the evolution of virulence, the competition of pathogens within a host, pathogen-host coevolution, and multilevel selection. The final sections review the long-term effects of vaccines and drugs, and the options and problems of virulence management. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Infectious diseases evolve rapidly, relentlessly threatening the health of humankind. Newly emerging diseases and the increasing incidence of antibiotic resistance, in particular, suggest that responsible health management must no longer ignore the continual adaptation of pathogens. In this volume, world experts on disease evolution offer their integrated knowledge.

This monograph takes stock of our current knowledge on the evolutionary ecology of infectious diseases, and sets out the goals for the management of virulent pathogens. Throughout the text, the fundamental concepts and techniques underlying the models are carefully explained in a unique series of integrated boxes.

Toward the end of the 1960s, by dint of science and collective efforts, humankind had managed to eradicate smallpox and to land on the moon.