A Vanishing West in the Middle East: The Recent History of US-Europe Cooperation in the Region (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

## Contents List of Illustrations vii Acknowledgments ix Acronyms xi In publishing this book, I owe a tremendous debt of gratitude to Washington Institute research assistants Elise Burr, Calvin Wilder, and Lauren Morganbesser. Their remarkable research skills made it possible for me to cover a dense literature, and helped me process interviews with many experts and practitioners. While working remotely through the pandemic, their curiosity, cheerfulness, and humor enabled this project to remain fun and enjoyable. This book is also the product of a personal reckoning after a decade of working in the Middle East and North Africa, and of following the region closely from Paris, Berlin, Brussels, and Washington. Over the years, many people served as "door openers" and "translators" for me, explaining the specifics of their societies along with broader regional realities. This book is therefore a tribute to all the friends and colleagues who have improved my understanding of Arab societies and of U.S. foreign policy. Some of them have played an invaluable role in providing feedback on parts of this book, and I am deeply grateful for their help. This research project would not have been possible without the support of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The book came to fruition through the endless discussions I had with the Institute's leadership and fellows, and would not be even approaching its current shape without the outstanding support of its editorial team. The Washington Institute has accumulated an incredible amount of knowledge and experience, and I am grateful to have been part of it. "A New West in the Middle East covers the history of Western cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa since the end of the Cold War. Based on more than fifty interviews with diplomats and experts as well as consultations of the academic literature, it describes the operational and political frameworks through which the United States and European countries have intervened in the Arab world, and how their relations with the region have changed. Practitioner testimonies and detailed case studies illuminate U.S. successes and failures in enlisting allies for campaigns in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. This analysis goes to the heart of the American debate on "endless wars" but also questions the very concept of Western intervention in a region where the Arab Spring and subsequent uprisings have profoundly changed the geopolitical landscape. Today, whereas the United States wishes to pull back from the region, Europe understands it must become more involved. Whatever their particular motivations, both must adapt to an increasingly fragmented Middle East, influenced especially by more assertive Chinese, Russian, Iranian, Emirati, and Turkish foreign policies"-- Provided by publisher. A Vanishing West in the Middle East covers the history of Western cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa since the end of the Cold War. Based on more than fifty interviews with diplomats and experts as well as consultations of the academic literature, it describes the operational and political frameworks through which the United States and European countries have intervened in the Arab world, and how their relations with the region have changed. Practitioner testimonies and detailed case studies illuminate U.S. successes and failures in enlisting allies for campaigns in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. This analysis goes to the heart of the American debate on "endless wars" but also questions the very concept of Western intervention in a region where the Arab Spring and subsequent uprisings have profoundly changed the geopolitical landscape. Today, whereas the United States wishes to pull back from the region, Europe understands it must become more involved. Whatever their particular motivations, both must adapt to an increasingly fragmented Middle East, influenced specifically by more assertive Chinese, Russian, Iranian, Emirati, and Turkish foreign policies. Cover Half-title Title Copyright Contents List of Illustrations Acknowledgments Acronyms Introduction 1. Transatlantic Asymmetry During the U.S. Unipolar Moment, 1990–2011 Imbalances, Capability Gaps, and “Burden Sharing” Lack of Institutional Space for Transatlantic Cooperation A Messy Toolkit 2. The Arab Uprisings, U.S. Fatigue, and the Vanishing West, 2011–21 Both the “Long Game” and the “Old Game” Fall Short on the Arab Spring The Partial Defeat of the Islamic State, 2014–21 Iran: Four Years of “Maximum Pressure” and Unsuccessful Diplomacy Transatlantic Disconnects 3. The New Middle East Geopolitics The Local Dynamics The New Strategic Landscape and Non-Western Influences Perceptions and Expectations of the United States and Europe 4. Heading in Opposite Directions Strategic Soul-searching, Beginning in Southern Europe? The Missing Element in European Foreign Policy Making The American Consensus on Middle East Minimalism 5. Toward Western Humility in the Middle East A Division of Labor in Great Power Politics Europe’s Moment to Act Toward a Healthier Engagement Conclusion: A New Triangle Index The Author Since the end of the Cold War, developments in the Middle East have frequently caused tension between the United States and Europe, from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the Arab uprisings of 2011 and Washington's 2018 decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. Today, the Biden administration is reasserting its desire to reduce America's regional footprint, even as its predecessors struggled to realize a similar goal. At the same time, the United States and Europe share an interest in a stable Middle East where governments keep energy supplies steady and contain threats posed by jihadism and mass refugee flows