A Study of Quality Management of Official Statistics in China (Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path)

This book focuses on how to improve the quality management of official statistics in China. Official statistics help to build an overview of China’s social and economic development and play an important role in policymaking for government as well as in decision-making for enterprises. Because of the great value in reference, the quality of official statistics also constitutes the concern from the public. This book summarizes three levels for understanding the concept of the quality of official statistics and analyzes possible affections from social and economic environment, political and management perspectives. Government statistical data is an important information reflecting China’s economic and social development, an important tool for Party committees at all levels, governments, enterprises and the public to understand and grasp China’s economic operation and social development, an important basis for Party committees and governments at all levels to conduct economic and social management and decision-making and an important reference for enterprises and the public to make decisions on production, operation, investment and consumption. Therefore, the government, enterprises and the public at all levels are demanding more and more government statistics. Accordingly, the quality of government statistical data is becoming more and more important, because it concerns the objectivity and accuracy of government statistical data, the scientificity of economic and social management, the decision-making of Party committees, the correctness of production, operation, investment and consumption decisions of enterprises and the public. Therefore, the quality of government statistical data is extremely important, which is not only the focus of social concern, but also the core issue of government statistics. Series Preface 6 Foreword 8 Contents 12 About the Author 17 1 Introduction 18 1.1 Research Background and Its Significance 18 1.1.1 Research Background 18 1.1.2 Significance of Research 20 1.2 Contents of Study 21 1.2.1 Research on Basic Theories on Management of Statistics Quality 21 1.2.2 Research on the Diagnosis and Evaluation Methods of Statistics Quality 23 1.2.3 Diagnosis and Analysis of the Quality of Major Macroeconomic Statistics 23 1.2.4 Study on the Construction of Ecological Environment of Statistics 24 Reference 24 2 Basic Theories of Statistics Quality Management 25 2.1 Basic Concepts of Statistics Quality 25 2.1.1 Evolution of Concept of Statistics Quality 25 2.1.2 Summarization and Re-Discussion of Concepts of Statistical Data Quality 27 2.2 Study on Evaluation Standards of Statistical Data Quality 33 2.2.1 The Evaluation Criteria for Accuracy of Statistical Data 33 2.2.2 The Quality Standards of Data Dissemination 35 2.2.3 A Comparative Analysis of Assessment Frameworks of Statistical Quality Commonly Used in the World 38 2.2.4 The Basic Idea of Formulating China's Statistical Data Quality Evaluation System 45 References 49 3 Research on the Framework of Overall Quality Management System of Statistical Data 50 3.1 The Producing Process of Government Statistics in China 50 3.1.1 Pre-stage: Statistical Design 51 3.1.2 Intermediate Stage: The Collection and Processing of Statistical Data 52 3.1.3 The Post-stage: Assessment, Release and Revision of the Report Data 55 3.2 Construction of a Framework for Overall Quality Management of Statistical Data 56 3.2.1 The Basic Framework of the Statistical Data Quality Management System 56 3.2.2 The Quality Control at the Pre-stage 57 3.2.3 Quality Control at the Intermediate Stage 63 3.2.4 Quality Control at the Post-stage 66 References 68 4 Basic Methods for Inspection and Assessment of Statistical Data Quality 69 4.1 Traditional Analysis Method and Survey Error Assessment Method for Data Quality Inspection 69 4.1.1 Traditional Analysis Method 69 4.1.2 Survey Error Assessment Method 71 4.2 Statistical Distribution Method and Econometric Modeling Method for Data Quality Inspection 72 4.2.1 Statistical Distribution Method 72 4.2.2 Econometric Model Method 73 4.3 Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Data Quality 79 4.3.1 Basic Ideas of the Comprehensive Evaluation Method 79 4.3.2 To Build a Comprehensive Evaluation Index System for Statistical Data Quality 80 4.3.3 To Provide the Evaluation Value of the Basic Indicators 82 4.3.4 To Determine the Weight of Indicators of Each Level 83 4.3.5 Comprehensive Evaluation of the Quality of Statistical Data 89 4.3.6 Evaluation of Comprehensive Evaluation Method and the Thinking on Further Improvement 92 References 93 5 Research on the Revision Method of Statistical Data 94 5.1 Basic Principles of Statistical Data Revision 94 5.1.1 Basic Concept and Types of Statistical Data Revision 94 5.1.2 Standard of Statistical Data Revision 95 5.1.3 How to Better Revise Statistics 96 5.2 Survey Data Method for Statistical Data Revision 97 5.2.1 The Basic Idea of the Survey Data Method 97 5.2.2 Several Commonly Used Revision Methods for Historical Data 97 5.2.3 Empirical Analysis 100 5.3 Model Method for Statistical Data Revision 104 5.3.1 The Basic Idea of the Model Method 104 5.3.2 Comparative Analysis and Thinking on the Revised Results of Quantity Input Method and Grey System Method 107 6 Research on the Quality of China’s GDP Data 109 6.1 Research on the Connectivity of National and Regional GDP Data of China 109 6.1.1 Question Raised 109 6.1.2 The Evolution of the Gap Between the Regional Aggregate Data and National Data of GDP 110 6.1.3 Quality Inspection of National and Regional Data of China’s GDP 113 6.1.4 Conclusions and Suggestions 120 6.2 Study on the Connectivity of China’s GDP Data in the Census Year and Regular Year 122 6.2.1 Question Raised 122 6.2.2 The Difference Between the GDP Accountings in the Census Years and the Regular Years 123 6.2.3 Conclusions and Suggestions 127 6.3 Research on the Connectivity Between China’s GDP Accountings by Production Approach and Expenditure Approach 128 6.3.1 Question Raised 128 6.3.2 The Evolution of the GDP Data Gap Between Production Approach and Expenditure Approach in China 129 6.3.3 Analysis of the Reasons for the Gap Between GDP Data Calculated by Expenditure Approach and Production Approach 129 6.4 Analysis of the Reasons Why the GDP of Production Approach Is Underestimated 131 6.5 Problems in the GDP Accounting by the Expenditure Approach 134 6.5.1 Conclusions and Suggestions 137 References 138 7 Evaluation and Analysis of CPI Data Quality in China 139 7.1 CPI and Its Compilation in China 139 7.1.1 Principles of Design and Compilation of CPI in China 139 7.1.2 Statistical Investigation of CPI in China 140 7.1.3 Compilation, Release and Revision of CPI 143 7.2 Analysis of CPI Bias 145 7.2.1 Question Raised 145 7.2.2 Analysis of CPI Bias Based on Time Series 146 7.2.3 Analysis of CPI Bias Based on Engel Coefficient 149 7.3 Aggregate and Connectivity Analysis of CPI 156 7.3.1 Assessment of the Aggregate Scheme of CPI Total Index 156 7.3.2 Connectivity Test of MOM Index and YOY Index 157 7.4 Multidimensional Quality Assessment of CPI Data in China 158 7.4.1 International Comparing Basis for CPI Quality Evaluation 158 7.4.2 Evaluation of CPI Data Quality in China Based on International Comparison 161 References 163 8 Research on CPI Data Quality in China 165 8.1 Quality Problems in China's CPI Data 165 8.1.1 The Problems in the CPI Design 165 8.1.2 The Problems in the CPI Source Data Survey 166 8.1.3 The Problems in the Compilation Methods, Release and Revision of CPI 167 8.2 Suggestions on Further Improving the Quality of CPI Data 171 8.2.1 Suggestions on Optimization of Statistical Design 171 8.2.2 The Suggestions on the Quality Optimization of Statistical Data Production Process 177 8.2.3 Optimization of Control During Data Entry, Review and Pre-processing 178 8.2.4 Suggestions for Improvement in the Evaluation and Revision of Statistical Data 181 References 184 9 Research on the Quality of China’s Real Estate Price Index 185 9.1 Compilation of China’s Real Estate Price Index and Its Problems 185 9.1.1 China’s Current Real Estate Price Index 185 9.1.2 The Current Problems of China’s Real Estate Price Index 188 9.2 Assessment of Accuracy of Housing Price Index 192 9.2.1 Theoretical Model for Assessing the Accuracy of Housing Price Index 192 9.2.2 Empirical Research 194 9.2.3 Summary 197 9.3 Research on Housing Price Index Based on Repeat Sales Model 198 9.3.1 Question Raised 198 9.3.2 The Repeat Sales Model and Its Estimation Method 199 9.3.3 The Processing of Data 201 9.3.4 Empirical Analysis 204 9.3.5 Summary 208 References 208 10 Research on Ecological Environment of Statistics 210 10.1 Impact of Statistical Ecological Environment on Data Quality 210 10.2 How to Build a Statistical Ecological Environment that is Conducive to Improving Data Quality 220 References 224 Epilogue 225