A Plan For A Research Program On Aerosol Radiative Forcing And Climate Change Aerosol Radiative Forcing And Climate Change

Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change, Environment and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council This book recommends the initiation of an "integrated" research program to study the role of aerosols in the predicted global climate change. Current understanding suggest that, even now, aerosols, primarily from anthropogenic sources, may be reducing the rate of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to specific research recommendations, this book forcefully argues for two kinds of research program integration: integration of the individual laboratory, field, and theoretical research activities and an integrated management structure that involves all of the concerned federal agencies. A PLAN FOR A RESEARCH PROGRAM ON Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change 1 Copyright 4 Foreword 9 Contents 11 Executive Summary 19 CHARGE TO THE PANEL 20 FINDINGS 20 MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 21 TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS 22 SCIENCE DEVELOPMENT 22 Global Climate Model Development 22 Process Research 22 Field Studies and Continuous In Situ Measurements 23 Satellite Observations 23 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT 23 Non-Satellite Technology Development 23 Satellite Technology Development 24 SYSTEM INTEGRATION AND ASSESSMENT 24 1 Climate Forcing by Aerosols 25 ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS 26 AEROSOL RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE 29 EVIDENCE FOR RADIATIVE FORCING BY ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS 31 Direct Forcing 31 Indirect Forcing 35 EVIDENCE FOR CLIMATE RESPONSE TO ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL FORCING 38 RADIATIVE FORCING OF CLIMATE BY STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOLS 41 Evidence for Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Perturbation 43 Inferences from Stratospheric Aerosol Research 44 CLIMATE FORCING BY KEY TROPOSPHERIC AEROSOL TYPES 44 CONCLUSIONS 47 2 Elements of a Research Program for Aerosol Forcing of Climate 53 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS 55 Atmospheric General Circulation Models 56 Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models 56 Recommended Research on Global Climate Modeling of Aerosol Radiative Forcing 60 PROCESS RESEARCH 61 Optical Properties 61 Recommended Process Research on Aerosol and Cloud Optical Properties 65 Aerosol Dynamics 65 Recommended Process Research on Aerosol Dynamics 69 Aerosol Sinks 70 Recommended Process Research on Aerosol Sinks 76 Aerosols and Ice Formation in Clouds 77 Recommended Process Research on Aerosols and Ice Formation in Clouds 79 Aerosol Process Models 80 Recommended Process Research on Aerosol Models 82 FIELD STUDIES 82 Closure Experiments 83 Multiplatform Field Campaigns 86 Recommended Field Studies 89 SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND CONTINUOUS IN SITU MONITORING 89 Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosols 91 In Situ Monitoring of Aerosols 96 Recommended Surface-Based Monitoring Programs 101 Mobile Platforms 101 Recommended Mobile Monitoring Programs 103 RECOMMENDED TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS 103 SUMMARY OF A RESEARCH PROGRAM ON AEROSOL FORCING OF CLIMATE 106 3 Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis and the Setting of Priorities 107 INTEGRATION VIA SENSITIVITY/UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES 108 AN EXAMPLE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: DIRECT RADIATIVE FORCING 108 FRAMEWORKS FOR RESEARCH AND FUNDING PRIORITIES 112 AN EXAMPLE OF SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES 116 SUMMARY 122 4 The Proposed ICARUS Program and Recommended Research 125 THE ICARUS STRATEGY 126 Action 1: Establish Leadership; Empower an Interagency Climate-Aerosol Radiative Uncertainties and S ... 126 Action 2: Establish Research Priorities; Mobilize ICARUS by Developing Method to Define Research Priorities 127 Action 3: Maintain Effective Leadership; Maintain ICARUS's Momentum by Applying Steadily Improving S ... 127 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE ICARUS PROGRAM 129 RESEARCH PROGRAM 130 Global Climate Model Development 132 Project 1. Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Aerosol Forcing in Global Climate Models 132 Project 2. Development of Global-Scale Aerosol Radiative Forcing Models 133 Process Research 133 Project 1. Aerosol Formation and Growth by Nucleation and Gas-to-Particle Conversion 133 Project 2. Aerosol and Cloud Optical Properties 134 Project 3. The Aerosol-CCN-CDNC-Cloud Albedo Linkage 134 Project 4. Aerosol Sinks 135 Multiplatform Field Campaigns 135 Project 1. Multiplatform Field Campaign 135 Project 2. Mobile Platforms 136 Project 3. Surface-Based Stations for Continuous Monitoring of Aerosols 136 Satellite System Development 137 Recommended Satellite Observations 137 Non-Satellite Technology Development 137 Project 1. Development of Advanced Aerosol Optical Instrumentation 137 Project 2. Development of a Compact CCN Spectrometer for Aircraft Use 138 Project 3. Development of Rapid, Lightweight Samplers for In Situ Chemical Analysis of Atmospheric Aerosols 138 Satellite Technology Development 138 Project 1. Satellite Development 138 System Integration and Assessment 138 Project 1. Coordination 139 Project 2. Integration and Assessment 139 Project 3. Integration of U.S. Research on Aerosol Forcing of Climate 139 References 141 A Illustrations of Recommended Research, Emphasizing Recent Literature 153 B Acronyms and Other Initials 177 Annotation. A National Research Council Report Summarizing Current Understanding Of The Effects Of Aerosols On Climate Change And Recommending A Research Program To Identify And Prioritize The Research Required To Determine The Effects Of Aerosol Forcing On The Atmosphere. The Report Covers Climate Forcing By Aerosols, The Elements Of A Research Program, Sensitivity And Uncertainty Analysis, And The Proposed Icarus Program. Lacks An Index. Annotation C. By Book News, Inc., Portland, Or. 1. Climate Forcing By Aerosols -- 2. Elements Of A Research Program For Aerosol Forcing Of Climate -- 3. Sensitivity/uncertainty Analysis And The Setting Of Priorities -- 4. The Proposed Icarus Program And Recommended Research -- Appendix A: Illustrations Of Recommended Research, Emphasizing Recent Literature -- Appendix B: Acronyms And Other Initials. Panel On Aerosol Radiative Forcing And Climate Change, Board On Atmospheric Sciences And Climate, Commission On Geosciences, Environment, And Resources, National Research Council. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 123-134). Recommends the initiation of an integrated research program to study the role of aerosols in the predicted global climate change. This book argues for two kinds of research program integration: integration of the individual laboratory, field, and theoretical research activities, and a management structure involving the concerned federal agencies.