۷ سناریوی مرگبار: یک آینده‌نگر نظامی جنگ در قرن بیست و یکم را بررسی می‌کند

A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.China's growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.Pakistan's collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks--and answers--in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich's job is to think the unthinkable--and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces--both overt and covert--that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and--hopefully--action.From the Hardcover edition. Cover......Page 1 Title page......Page 7 Copyright page......Page 8 Dedication......Page 9 Contents......Page 11 North America......Page 13 Middle East......Page 15 India, Pakistan, Afghanistan......Page 17 Russia, China, Australia......Page 19 Pearl Harbor......Page 23 The Dawn of Blitzkrieg......Page 25 Millennium Challenge......Page 27 Yoda......Page 30 Scenarios: Preparing for an Uncertain Future......Page 32 Leaving the Comfort Zone......Page 34 Don't Try to Predict the Future-You Can't......Page 36 Scenarios and Strategy......Page 37 Why Do We Have A Hard Time Changing Our Vision?......Page 39 Thinking About the Next War......Page 41 "The Streetfighter State"......Page 43 Insights from "The Streetfighter State"......Page 49 1 The Collapse of Pakistan [30]......Page 52 Assassination......Page 53 "The Century's Greatest Crisis"......Page 54 The Slow Disintegration of Pakistan......Page 58 The Rise of Radical Islamism: The Madrassas......Page 62 The Ungoverned Areas and the Radical Islamist Movement......Page 64 Run-Up to the Current Crisis......Page 67 What Is to Be Done?......Page 72 2 War Comes to America [63]......Page 85 Ten Determined Men......Page 86 Remember the Alamo?......Page 89 No Fingerprints?......Page 91 The Red Connection......Page 94 The Spartacus Effect......Page 98 "My Fellow Americans"......Page 104 "Rag-Heads 60,000; U.S. 0"......Page 106 South of the Border, Down Mexico Way.........Page 113 The Pandemic "Plague"......Page 114 A Global Economy In Crisis......Page 117 An Imposing Enemy......Page 118 "Plague" In the Information Age......Page 120 Chaos on America's Doorstep......Page 121 Go North, Young Man.........Page 122 The Shadow of Death......Page 124 How Did It Happen?......Page 125 The World's Weak Defenses......Page 127 Globalization: The Great Enabler?......Page 128 Waging War on Pandemic Influenza......Page 130 Mexican Exodus......Page 136 "Moonshine"......Page 141 The Coming Wave......Page 144 An Echo from the Past......Page 147 The Second Lebanon War......Page 151 Iraq and the Sunni Arab States......Page 153 Iran Ascendant......Page 155 The Mullahs' Descent......Page 159 The Growing Crisis......Page 163 The 28 Mordad......Page 165 The Sinking of the Moshe Dayan......Page 167 "Greater Than Entebbe"......Page 168 Sliding Toward Armageddon......Page 170 An Iranian "Guarantee"?......Page 182 The View from Washington......Page 183 The Last Hours of Peace?......Page 187 The Last Days of Peace?......Page 191 Thinking About the Day After Tomorrow......Page 192 Dragon or Panda?......Page 194 The Sputtering Engine of Growth......Page 196 Is Demography Destiny?......Page 198 The Little Violent Emperors......Page 202 Water......Page 203 The Long Path to War......Page 205 China's Military Transformation: The Assassin's Mace......Page 207 China's Threat to the Global Commons......Page 212 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Command of the Sea and Undersea......Page 213 Chinese Challenge to U.S. Access to Space......Page 215 Chinese Threats to Cyberspace......Page 216 China's Strategic Depth......Page 218 China's Crisis......Page 220 Caught Napping......Page 226 We Seek No Wider Conflict......Page 228 6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy [210]......Page 232 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Shipping Network......Page 234 Background to the Current Crisis: The Global Energy Trade......Page 239 The Forces of Disorder......Page 240 "The Platforms Are Burning"......Page 246 "The Mother of All Oil Fires"......Page 252 The Cyberblockade......Page 254 Baby Hiroshima......Page 260 Blue Christmas......Page 263 The "Blame Game"......Page 268 Not So Fast......Page 270 Stagflation and Declining U.S. Support......Page 273 Iraq's Factions Reemerge......Page 276 The Short Recessional......Page 282 The Stand at Najaf......Page 285 The Long Road Home......Page 288 The Shi'a Surge......Page 289 The Turks Make Their Move......Page 293 Exit the Advisers......Page 295 The War Spreads......Page 296 On the Outside Looking In......Page 300 So What?......Page 307 "Wasting Assets"......Page 309 What Is Strategy?......Page 311 Barriers to Good Strategy......Page 313 What Is to Be Done?......Page 316 Creating New Paths to the Future......Page 319 Concepts of Operations......Page 322 Willingness to Designate "Winners" and "Losers"......Page 324 A Sense of Urgency......Page 325 Sustained Effort......Page 328 Emphasis on the Operational Level of War......Page 329 The Customer......Page 331 Training Facilities......Page 332 Resources......Page 335 Input in Developing Future Requirements......Page 336 Conclusion......Page 338 Acknowledgments [319]......Page 341 B......Page 343 C......Page 344 E......Page 345 H......Page 346 I......Page 347 N......Page 349 O......Page 350 P......Page 351 S......Page 353 T......Page 354 U......Page 355 Z......Page 356 A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes. Chinas growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistans collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready? These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asksand answersin this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevichs job is to think the unthinkableand prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forcesboth overt and covertthat are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, andhopefullyaction. A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major American cities are leveled by black-market nukes. China's growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistan's collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How will we respond? Are we prepared? These are the questions that Andrew F. Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling book. As a military expert and consultant, Krepinevich must think the unthinkable based on the latest intelligence and geopolitical trends—and devise a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the real ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take—and what we must do to prepare before it's too late. A military strategist looks at the very real dangers confronting America in the twenty-first century, drawing on extensive research, interviews, and intelligence to analyze seven potentially disastrous scenarios that America is ill-prepared to handle